FXCM SSI: USDJPY Positioning Unchanged As Traders Await The FOMC's Decision
Tuesday, 18 September 2007 09:35:42 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.30 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.26 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.2% lower than yesterday and 21.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 6.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.0% weaker than yesterday and 5.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<<Ratio incr. on short pos'n was -1 range now -2. Longs positions are lower short term (sidelines with event risk looming) and longer out longs are just frothing over 1.40 on the euro with 21% stronger since last week. (This tells me that we are closer to a top). Shorts have no conviction lower 2% ah not much and 6% weaker since last week says, "Hey mkt I dont see downside after multi year high now sideways, I want to look elsewhere."
My bias is still higher on daily + chart but waning momentum is showing intraday making trades difficult over last week. For now, its all about event risk 18:15 gmt. >>

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.18 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 1.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 15.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 15.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

<< Longs still think they should be long with event risk 2.6% higher but not much. Shorts now growing after move lower and building 2.8% ST and 15% farther out. Hmm does this tell us that downside is getting crowded and correction looming. Unsure dailies and higher are technically in bad shape so I am in sell any rally possible, however with FOMC, this trader is flat. Let the chart tell you what the next move is.>>

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.0% higher than yesterday and 17.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 79.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% stronger than yesterday and 18.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

<<What is this 4% building of longs and 18% since last week, they are feeling recover???. Shorts sidelined with FOMC but wow building short base 79% stronger. That tells me that the path of least resistance is....... yep correct higher. ** Not my thoughts what I have heard cnbc and read. A lot of conflicting out there as many writing saying 25 bps says $ rallies against most. 50 bps says carry trades get crushed $ falls vis a vie yenny and rallies aGainst other EURopean Based currency Pairs. not surprising you should be. >>

I say not what they do is important, it's what they say is how fx , equities, bonds react.>>

Euchre
Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.