Look at the action in the US dollar across the majors. The greenback was able to surge against pound, broke new highs in USDCHF, marked a major trend break in EURUSD, left behind a seven-month range in USDCAD, and rallied 150 points against the Aussie dollar. Despite all this though, USDJPY is still caught in a 85-100 point range below notable resistance at 108.50.

IMO, this is a prominent reminded that the the recent dollar advance is only one of two factors behind USDJPY price action. The other issue here (and clearly the dominate one for the day) is the weakness in the carry trade. Other yen crosses and yield-heavy pairs have been weak across the board (what with the RBNZ and RBA moving towards cuts and the lower yield central banks promising hikes).

I think volatility off of today's Fed decision could produce a USDJPY breakout; but unless other carry pairs rebound, we aren't going to get much of a trend out of the move.

What do the rest of you think? Technically and fundamentally.