Quote:
Originally Posted by popzcamelx
I think this cant continue forever and a rebound should come sooner or later. I was unfortunately a bit late on both of the falls of AUD and NZD.
But i'm just wonder when is the rebound coming? what do you guys think? and what would cause the rebound? what is there to trouble the USD in the near future? the only thing i can think of, is if price of oil goes back up.
From my understanding, the nuclear negotiations with Iran have failed again and there might be more sanctions coming. this will probably lead to further escalation and possibilty further hostilities in the middle east, leading to a price hike in oil.
What are your views? = )
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Hello popzcamelx,
Why try to fight such a strong trend? I say this to many people, trend reversals happen 5-10% of the time. The rest of the time the market is trending or range bound. Best not to fight the flow - unless you are looking for a pull back to get into the larger trend...
The dollar has a lot of problems already. The FOMC hasn't confirmed when its next hike will be and the 75bps of tightening in overnight interest rates swaps is looking too aggressive. Employment is contracting and the overall consumer sector (accounting for 70% of growth) is slowing even while economists are saying the US has avoided a recession because of the 2Q GDP rebound. You have the ongoing credit issues and even banks have made a joint proposal that would cut deep into their business.
Oil is a lesser issue. It is actually more responsive to the dollar than the other way around because it is denominated in greenbacks.