Andrei Pehar, Sr. Currency Strategist, fxKnight.com
Known as the "Black Knight" in trading circles, Andrei is a private fund manager, consultant to management, and a sought-after speaker, trainer, and coach for professional traders and individual investors alike. He played in professional chess tournaments at a young age, earning a rating in the U.S. Chess Federation, and went on to further hone his strategic skills by studying Japanese martial arts, bringing with him a unique perspective to the financial markets.
His client list includes prestigious names such as UBS, Tower Asset Management (named by Bloomberg as top asset manager), Clifford Associates (investment counselors since 1915, officially acknowledged as the oldest in the United States), and several other high profile firms specializing in investment and wealth management for musical artists, sports celebrities, and other ultra high net worth individuals and trusts. He is currently working on a book which will, for the first time, introduce retail traders to institutional trading strategies and techniques.
Click Here to view videos by fxKnight
Known as the "Black Knight" in trading circles, Andrei is a private fund manager, consultant to management, and a sought-after speaker, trainer, and coach for professional traders and individual investors alike. He played in professional chess tournaments at a young age, earning a rating in the U.S. Chess Federation, and went on to further hone his strategic skills by studying Japanese martial arts, bringing with him a unique perspective to the financial markets.
His client list includes prestigious names such as UBS, Tower Asset Management (named by Bloomberg as top asset manager), Clifford Associates (investment counselors since 1915, officially acknowledged as the oldest in the United States), and several other high profile firms specializing in investment and wealth management for musical artists, sports celebrities, and other ultra high net worth individuals and trusts. He is currently working on a book which will, for the first time, introduce retail traders to institutional trading strategies and techniques.
Click Here to view videos by fxKnight
The Commodities Corner
Oil: The Gustav Factor
Fri, Aug 29 2008, 10:08 GMT
by Andrei Pehar
Hurricane Gustav is expected to hit the Gulf of Mexico (which contains roughly 1/5th of all US oil producing and refining facilities) late Monday or early Tuesday morning, with winds of at least 131 miles per hour.
How will this affect the price of oil?
In many ways, it already has. People have had some time to digest the news, so the fear factor should already be priced in for the most part. Even with this development, it could not sustain prices above the 120.43 level we were watching last week, largely due to the rally in both the Dow and the US Dollar.
What remains to be seen now is whether the storm hits or misses the facilities, how many of them, and how severe the damage is. Many are still rebuilding after Katrina and Rita. Royal Dutch Shell has already begun the evacuation of non-essential personnel from some of their platforms in the region.
If these events push price above the new resistance at 119.67, then most likely we will see a move up to 124.82 (additional resistance is at 128.99 if we clear the first target). There is strong support at 11.33 and 110.31 – and if the effect of the storm is not as large as anticipated and we drop below these levels, then we could see a drop to 104.97, or perhaps 101.79
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0829102252.jpg
Fri, Aug 29 2008, 10:08 GMT
by Andrei Pehar
Hurricane Gustav is expected to hit the Gulf of Mexico (which contains roughly 1/5th of all US oil producing and refining facilities) late Monday or early Tuesday morning, with winds of at least 131 miles per hour.
How will this affect the price of oil?
In many ways, it already has. People have had some time to digest the news, so the fear factor should already be priced in for the most part. Even with this development, it could not sustain prices above the 120.43 level we were watching last week, largely due to the rally in both the Dow and the US Dollar.
What remains to be seen now is whether the storm hits or misses the facilities, how many of them, and how severe the damage is. Many are still rebuilding after Katrina and Rita. Royal Dutch Shell has already begun the evacuation of non-essential personnel from some of their platforms in the region.
If these events push price above the new resistance at 119.67, then most likely we will see a move up to 124.82 (additional resistance is at 128.99 if we clear the first target). There is strong support at 11.33 and 110.31 – and if the effect of the storm is not as large as anticipated and we drop below these levels, then we could see a drop to 104.97, or perhaps 101.79
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...0829102252.jpg
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Recent Blog Entries by fxKnight.com
- Crude Oil: A Key Level to Watch (11-20-2008)
- Has the Aussie Found Bottom? (10-22-2008)
- The Long−term Outlook for Gold (10-15-2008)
- Next Levels to Watch for the EUR/USD (10-09-2008)
- US Senate Passes Bailout Bill − Markets Unimpressed (10-02-2008)
