11-11-2007, 04:33 PM
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the EUR/USD
Hi, people.
How do you think about the latest formation of the EUR/USD? The formation for the last three trading days, 7, 8 and 9th. It looks like a bit bearish at this altitude, doesn't it? It has come in a nice contact with B bands, also. I don't think the trend of this pair would reverse any time soon, but we could see some retracement from here around to 4400 to 4500(judging from fibo)...before the next climb starts. This is just my thoughs. And people, your thoughts? puka puka Last edited by puka puka; 11-11-2007 at 09:46 PM. 
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11-12-2007, 05:54 PM
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I noticed that I miswrote my rec for USDCAD. I had a small buy stop order at 0.9325 which was triggered and pulled back to be cut at break even. I put in an order at the same price again and this one followed through with an additional entry at 0.9460. I took profit on the first lot for 200 profit and moved the 0.9460 up to break even. I'll probably look for 200 points on this as well. I didn't set my short order for AUDUSD since it conflicted with a range trade rec; for which I set up with a tight stop and wanted to lay out a breakout, but didn't have room. Any one jump on this trade? It would have been profitable for conservative and aggressive traders.
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11-12-2007, 06:08 PM
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I 1.45 is near-term support on that fib; and that the next floor is on the rising trend coming up to 1.4365. Given EURUSD's heights, I would favor setting short stop orders on moves through 1.45 and 1.4350 to limit risk and jump on a potentially momentous, medium-term retracement. I want to see how today's daily candle closes. As long as its in the bottom quarter of the range and isn't a belt hold; I'll like the development of the short side. Of course, the weekly bar is very new, so we could be looking at a mere retracement if long-term money doesn't catch on to the potential reversal signaled by technicals and candles on the lower time frame.
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11-13-2007, 02:39 PM
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Thank you for your kind analysis, Mr. Kicklighter.
 Currently the pair seems to be trying to go through the right lowering line, which you can draw in parallel for the last several weeks on the 4-hour chart(sorry, I don't know how to post my chart here), but I hope the pair will not go up further for the moment and will continue to decline a bit more, around 4400 level... When any bullish candlestick formation are formed there, I will consider buying the pair. puka puka Last edited by puka puka; 11-13-2007 at 02:43 PM.
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11-13-2007, 03:23 PM
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Cross yen pairs...
All these risky pairs are going to present a compelling formation. On all cross pairs daily charts today's body has already come back well beyond the half of yesterday's dropping body. Although there still remain 8 hours to close today, if the prices close well beyond the half, could this mean we would see reversal or some nice correction in these yen pairs? The trouble is, to me, that ironically candlestick analysis seems not to often work out on the chart of yen pairs...  puka puka Last edited by puka puka; 11-13-2007 at 03:48 PM.
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11-13-2007, 04:15 PM
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After yesterday's dollar rally, the probability of a pull back across the majors was high. With many of these pairs already working on considerable retracements, the question now is whether or not this is a temporary bounce or a genuine selling that will take the dollar to new lows.
While there are arguments for each side of this scenario, candle stick formations on a few of the majors is suggesting a very dovish turn is underway for the dollar bulls. Specifically, I'm talking about the bullish belt bottom in GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. This is a formation where a wide-bodied bar has a low equal to its open. The chance of reversal is moderate at best, but the rally potential from such a formation is pretty great - as we have seen already.
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11-13-2007, 04:27 PM
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From a candlestick standpoint, EURUSD is working with a bar that could be described as a harami (though continuous pricing precludes the gap between close and open) or a piercing line (which depends on whether the close of today's daily bar will be above the midpoint of Monday's candle). The latter is the more bullish formation as it offers bulls a platform for continuation on the assumption that 50% of the rally has come and gone; so lets see what we are left with.
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11-13-2007, 10:19 PM
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I couldn't resist buying USD/JPY, seeing a compelling formation of candlesticks on a daily and 4-hour chart.
Opened at 110.91, sl 109.44, lmt 112.44. Hope good luck for me. As for EUR/USD, I will still wait and see. I have just closed my position with a few pips... Now I wait and see. puka puka
Last edited by puka puka; 11-14-2007 at 01:02 AM.
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11-14-2007, 01:18 AM
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11-14-2007, 02:49 AM
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I guess the pair shall keep going up today together with other cross yen pairs. But I just want to avoid any risks for the moment, so I closed my position. To me this kind of trade was a speculative and risky one. puka puka
Last edited by puka puka; 11-14-2007 at 03:44 AM.
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11-14-2007, 05:28 PM
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David brought this to my attention. Look at the weekly GBPUSD chart. If we can get a good solid red bar close at the end of this week, we will have a very clear evening star. This is a relatively high probability formation, and considering GBPUSD is considerably overbought and we have come off a channel top and 26-year high, this could mark a big market turn.
If you look at the temporary tops through GBPUSD's steady advance through 2006 and 2007, none have produced as clear a chart formation as this one. We have seen a few piercing lines and engulfing bears, but never a crisp doji like this (which is also pretty close to a shooting star in its own right).
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11-14-2007, 09:53 PM
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11-14-2007, 10:12 PM
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The last time that this occurred on the GBPUSD weekly chart was in September, 2005 (see chart below), and the GBPUSD subsequently went on to lose 1000 points in the next three months of trading. See the second chart for where we're at now. The key here is to wait for a weekly close that satisfies the Evening Star candlestick formation criteria. We can't play candlestick formations on open candles.
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11-15-2007, 01:20 AM
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I tried in vain to post my chart on the board, in fact, I have been rying to do so, but couldn't. How do the people here manage to post their charts on the board? Are there any hidden points to click to post charts on this board? I cannot find them. In fact, I thought that people would have been keeping those points from puka puka as they wouldn't want to see my charts...  puka puka Last edited by puka puka; 11-15-2007 at 01:43 AM.
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11-15-2007, 08:28 AM
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