Hi Richard,
Thanks for your explanation. However, I have read the article concerning the seasonality but I do not agree with its contents overall. The foundation and approach of the apparent seasonality evidence is in my opinion flawed. The data points used are to minor to validate any seasonal influence/theorem as mentioned in this report. Regarding your explanation that markets tend to trend; It is known that markets will trend. But this is confirmed for a fact only after the trend has happened. Before that you try to guesstimate the birth of a new trend. And defining when it is in a trend is done after defining first the boundaries of a non-directional range and time frame to confirm it, after which the trend has thus emerged and thus being confirmed after the fact. Having said the above I do not see what contribution [even if it is not flawed] the seasonal article can deliver in making a better informed decision in what side you could take a position for any time frame.
I am not criticizing the knowledge and insights of the writer of the article and I am able to understand that my viewpoint can be completely wrong and that I have no clue what so ever. That is why wanted to ask the questions so that I/we can learn from it.
I hope you receive this in good spirits and look forward to your reply and/or from the writer Antonio.

Regards,
Danny

I see a 161.8 extention on the dollar? s/b a nice retrace ---50-70.7%???

TIME THE WAVE

short GBP 0326 & 0366..........aim @ 9850
short EUR 3770....................aim @ 3100
long CHF 2038.....................aim @ 2600

Breeze

__________________
"Warning"...."I dont use stop losses"...."I HEDGE"..."Caution"...follow at own risk...!

Your suggestions are of great importance to a begginer like me. thanks.

Could you kindly explain what you mean by 'aim'- do you mean when to close my position? Thanks again

Yes....Yes....Yes....or you can say target @ 9850.

all the best
Breeze

__________________
"Warning"...."I dont use stop losses"...."I HEDGE"..."Caution"...follow at own risk...!

well u could say that were about to get there soon...as it failed to break above 3850....the FED's containment on Inflation(running above the FED's target) and high TIC/Industrial Production data....this simply indicates that the US economy is still in good shape.....and high EUR and GBP will most certainly hurt both European and British Exports.

Breeze

__________________
"Warning"...."I dont use stop losses"...."I HEDGE"..."Caution"...follow at own risk...!

wheres is that dave....?

Breeze

__________________
"Warning"...."I dont use stop losses"...."I HEDGE"..."Caution"...follow at own risk...!

Unfortunately the Cable rise has preceeded the Euro rocket everytime by about three days.
That way any retail traders who may be caught short would not be able to hedge the move by taking cable long. Then cable sits dead in the water allowing Chunnel to rise back up and the Euro too.
Chunnel has come down and cable has gone up- so part one is complete. Part two due any day now as 4 hourlies and the dailies have given enough room for Euro to deliver the penultimate blow.
Wolfe wave is now insitu.
The same setup as before. Newbies take note this setup is priceless and called a 'Dragon's' or 'Dogs' tail. It does fail on occaisions so you have to be prepared.
Keep your guards up and your eyes on the prize.

1.3916- Next stop for Euro feinds.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

Important level to look out for is 1.3792 then 1.3805 when they go- boom!!

Expect 1.3763 to be tested and will be the entry. Approximate time will be in the UK session tomorrow.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

The physiology of the AM move appears to be more probing than cuaterizing. I may be wrong but there is active resistance from here on up. Someone or something is furring up the arteries of the late uptrend.
Any views?
Watch for the banks to give up their longs- How much will it cost them to continue buying Euro?
Eyes on the big money.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

If we examine the physiology of the recent rises in Euro. It is important to note that at this stage active resistance is a common theme in all of the past jumps.
Usually stopping at the take or mid line of the channel.
Today we saw it jump over that and get swatted.

But it ain't over 'til it's over:
The move is lately follwed by a sideways move to the lower support of the channel. From where the attack up is made. Approximately 2 days away.
So I conclude that it is too early to place shorts and scalping long would be the prefered strategy until we see clear signals for shorts.

1.3794 should support. A break is giving strength for a move to 1.3755 and break of that level will see us go down.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

Hello Lava

As I see it.................

With active Gann resistance moving north at 3851 and a powerful pivot point at 3794 the current action is at a critical position.

If 3794 breaks it could form support and 3916 may be possible near term, or if it forms resistance we could see the action retracing to active Gann 3679.

rgds - arco

well, the next move is pretty obvious if you have been watching the market moves after the past Benarke speeches.

The trend for Euro and Equities is still in place, nothing has changed. The scare tactics by the homeland department, the Japan nuclear leak do not change the fact that the global market is flushed with liquidity.

In fact, we are drawing closer to greater liquidity, when the Chinese government would release the next batch of USD into the market.

Perhaps, I say perhaps, tonight we see a pullback in Euro, S&P, DJ ahead of option expiry (when pple takes profit or cut losses). However, we definitelywould see the stock market rallying with DJ heading for 15,000 and S&P towards 1600. Implication is that USD Index would goes lower into 79++. However not a crisis. As the Fed has measures in place to support the USD, and USD is still in demand for trade, etc.

Would expect a pull back from 1.3800 towards 1.3650, and then a rally next week into 1.4000.

However would not rule out a immediate break above 1.3800 into 1.3900 within this week, when the USD bull short covers.

As long as the Equities bull trend is in place, USD is bound to slowly depreciate.

Whatever BEN says, the market has decided what to do: Flush out the longs and start the next leg of rally in Equities and Euro, GBP. Expect JPY to depreciate into 124 to fuel the rally in Equities/Euro/GBP.

By now, pple should realise that BEN is a academic, a market follower, not setter.

The recent burst of euro buying early today, to breakout point, has coincidentally pushed up EURJPY and thereby lifted USDJPY along with it. On the cross, although this is not the right thread I know, there looks to be a huge upside over the next few days, which implies big gains on the EURUSD, since USDJPY is fighting against a cycle downturn.

Additionally, I see no reason why the bears should not stay in their caves until Aug-10, when this pair should be at 1.3984, as I calculate.

Hi!

Do you mean you are waiting for any data latter this week (or next) to aid a stronger move in the market? What piece of data could it be?

We will only be looking for a clear sell signal after we have visited 1.39¼ - 1.39½... if we don't see it, then count us with the bulls until 1.41oo

Hoftman.