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  #7786 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 09:07 PM
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it seems pretty dead right now, but good luck anyway! (boy not too much!! )
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  #7787 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 09:14 PM
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Hello everyone,

I have been reading this forum and been reading everyones views. Im still learning at the moment so ill put what i think. If you can give me views on it an let me know if my prediction is right or wrong.

I have attached a chart with this email and i think it will go to 1.5685 - 1.5725 depending on US news.

Thanks
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  #7788 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 09:20 PM
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great job

Quote:
Originally Posted by stryker View Post
main trade charts are always 4hrs, if others i would say weekly, hrly or 30 mins..
stryker you are doing very well job ..... my compliment .......... could yo send me link or more information where can i find some more studing stuff about these trend lines ............... know when i paint my self looks easy but make desicion from witch poin to exact point its very complicated for me .... i have to improved my analysis ..... thnk you for answer
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  #7789 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 09:46 PM
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Exclamation intervention

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayson Wonder View Post
Ok, I am also trading with that premise also as NFP tomorrow will likely bring negative tone to the market and USD.

I am looking for a return to 15700, by tommorow. Is this realistic in the minds of other EUR/USD traders?
Pro-dollar intervention is evident. The market was heading for 1.5760. Paulson and his crew.
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  #7790 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 10:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fesi1 View Post
stryker you are doing very well job ..... my compliment .......... could yo send me link or more information where can i find some more studing stuff about these trend lines ............... know when i paint my self looks easy but make desicion from witch poin to exact point its very complicated for me .... i have to improved my analysis ..... thnk you for answer
i have not read any but "Tools and Tactics for the Master DayTrader: Battle ... by Oliver Velez, Greg Capra"
its a decent book and i have enjoyed reading it...
mostly i picked up on my own, so i cannot help much here.

Thanks for the compliments..... Thanks all..........

lets stay profitable and reason our trades..........

Plus, i have let go my long from 5587 at 5596...
NFP tomorrow and it is a scalper paradise.......... all the fireworks are over for the day and not gonna see much till the NFP tomorrow......
it would be however painfully slow and gr8 deal of patience is required for these scalps...however i don't fall on that category.......... so im out till the nfp..

so what happened today..........
we went testing 5700 and then lower to the low of the day........
classic preemptive strike on both sides before the big battle tomorrow......
how!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
all the strong longs ahve been ambushed on the break of 5610 and then again flushing the remaining longs below 5500....... so what is left, the attraction i mean....... offocurse to cut the shorts off....... today's move has done nothing but taken out the weaker shorts and then going back to take care of the bull drivers who just started feeling comfortabble.....
5500 definitely would be carrying decent option protection.........which in turn is again attraction to the mkt...... but then again what about the shorts from 6000 or from around 59+......... they would definitely stay intact if the trend has reversed and we go lower......... last i checked i see a bull supp from longer time frame at that time around 5150........

now for those who made money on today's long they can care less about any reason if they were able to bail out at or above 5666..... they have made it... for those who got caught initially on shorts from around the lows or below 5600 must have got flushed out and may even longed on from aorund the highs getting stuck in double jeopardy......... for them any reason after the price action has happened means zilch as the day is almsot over and they r prolly licking wounds........ this simply might give them some relief as SO THISSSSSSS ISSSSSS WHATTTT HAPPENED........... or maybe HMMMM... NOWWWWWWW III KNOWWWWWWW THE BLODDY REASON................

a pathetic move indeed.......... sorry for those people.. better luck next time.....

to be frank what i mentioned above don't matter........ there is always tomorrow and if managed things rt one can bounce back.......

what matters is that the longs in place now are fresh ones whereas the shorts are weaker and most prolly fresh shorts are waiting for better lvls to jump in....... now unless we have a trend change which then any lvl is shortable, where do we stick our trades... i would certainly favor north...

just imagine one thing... if by the day end (NFP) the low doesnot extend 5550-75. where would be the finishing........ 5740 atleast........ i guess......
the above statement is not to be taken literally, but a quite possibility.... but then again a break lower to 5570-75 would or call for deeper correction below..

i must stop now, come tomorrow would post charts and would be able to better access things out......
as for now today was the best trading day i had in about 2 weeks i suppose...
this month however had been slower becasue we are seen whipsaw........
annyways..........

GL ALL..
__________________
Patience is virtue. The sooner we learn this all, sooner we can start walking to the bank. Good Luck to all of us—
The trick is to wait the price meet ur limits, instead of one jumping in.. however scalps is a totally different scenario and is not everyone's cup of tea
Disclaimer: I'm not at all suggesting trades when by either posting the graphs, or my entries. You can view it, but in the end you have to use your own logic and approach, as there is no certainty about this uncertain market...

Last edited by stryker; 07-31-2008 at 10:20 PM.
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  #7791 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 10:35 PM
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Like my scenario was completly ok.. EUR strenght was not real. I didn't have much tima for trading last few day but I had some short orders in 1,5630 area which got trigered today. Closed them right now at 1,5592.

I will bet on dolar strenght tommorow (if it spikes higher). I think that 1,55 can be very atractive level for touching or even breaking - if so we go to 1,53. Maybe 1,45 can be reality this year?

Stryker I m looking forward for your charts and comments!!!

GL tommorow!
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  #7792 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 10:36 PM
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Trading the NFP

This is my first post...

First, thank you all very much for the education you provide on daily basis. I am new to the game and have been a sponge trying to understand the charts, analysis, etc. that are posted in this forum.

I took a big hit yesterday (my stupidity) and would really like to make up part of it tomorrow with the NFP. While I have never traded the NFP before, I have been trying to learn about how to do it.

One strategy I saw that I want to run by the forum is the following:
-----
Open 2 trades (one long, one short) 5 - 10 mins before the NFP release. THe long would open 20 pips ahead of whatever the price is 5 - 10 mins before the NFP release and the short would open 20 pips lower than than the price 5 - 10 mins before) -- each having a 20 pip s/l. So a loss is inevitable on one trade, but it looks like the winning trade would profit well.
-----
That seems very simple, so I am missing something?

Most of you are probably pros in knowing how to make a sizable profit on the NFP. I would be most grateful for any strategies out there on how and when to enter trades to accomplish that goal.

Again, thank you all, for the education you bring to this forum and congrats to those who profited from today.
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  #7793 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trip00 View Post
where do you predict the top of the run? personally i think 5750 is conservative. if we see -100k or more 5800 would easily come into play. FYI this is as much risk as i can stand in a trade, lol. but on the other hand i cant wrap my mind around the dollar picking up momentum.
What I charted is the following:
NFP between -50K and -200K
-50K I would see 1.5580, -200K I would see 1.5794.
Inbetween I have the following levels: 5675, 5712-5717, 5733, 5750.

If NFP better then -50K:
1.5521, 1.5467-5461, 1.5409, 1,5377
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  #7794 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 10:39 PM
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  #7795 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 11:04 PM
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Jackclown and Y.OZIS posting the same chart ?? Same person ? Both copied from the same source ?
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  #7796 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 11:07 PM
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Sunny Side Up

Hi all.
Back from my holidays in the sun. Dollar has made a bit of a comeback, and now NFP are coming up. So whats next?
I dont know. But before I went on holiday 1,5611 was the level to watch and that has been broken. So from a technical point of view it looks like we will see more downside presure. Now the funda's need to support that.
NFP, Paulson, Oil, gold, FOMC, ECB.................. I need to start reading.
GL
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  #7797 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 11:08 PM
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Hi...Im jackclown ..ı have a problem on jackclown nicname ..and I do new nickname (Y.OZİS)..ok..But I send now new chart with old nickname(jackclow)..no now problem..ok...good trade
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  #7798 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 11:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pf0351 View Post
Only stryker can tell you exactly what he meant, however, I interpret his statement that price action will bounce off of T1 or may even break through it if None Farm Payrolls are really bad, -200'000 or so a break of T1 could happen I would think.
Hey thanks - sooooo - hope this isn't a stupid question - what is T1?
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  #7799 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 11:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrus View Post
This is my first post...

First, thank you all very much for the education you provide on daily basis. I am new to the game and have been a sponge trying to understand the charts, analysis, etc. that are posted in this forum.

I took a big hit yesterday (my stupidity) and would really like to make up part of it tomorrow with the NFP. While I have never traded the NFP before, I have been trying to learn about how to do it.

One strategy I saw that I want to run by the forum is the following:
-----
Open 2 trades (one long, one short) 5 - 10 mins before the NFP release. THe long would open 20 pips ahead of whatever the price is 5 - 10 mins before the NFP release and the short would open 20 pips lower than than the price 5 - 10 mins before) -- each having a 20 pip s/l. So a loss is inevitable on one trade, but it looks like the winning trade would profit well.
-----
That seems very simple, so I am missing something?

Most of you are probably pros in knowing how to make a sizable profit on the NFP. I would be most grateful for any strategies out there on how and when to enter trades to accomplish that goal.

Again, thank you all, for the education you bring to this forum and congrats to those who profited from today.
tried to do this this morning with the gdp data, went awfully wrong. lost 60+pips (on 0.4 lots, i´m on a mini account, so it´s a huge hit). First I got filled with my sell order just before 8.30. Then my longs got filled way too far for price of order. I cancelled the batch or orders, and some how got filled in different prices. shorts buying high, longs selling low, a big mess.

I thought it could work, but it didn´t this time. Maybe tomorrwow (smaller lots, placing the orders with restrictions and only 1-2 mins before the report)
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  #7800 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2008, 11:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrus View Post
This is my first post...

First, thank you all very much for the education you provide on daily basis. I am new to the game and have been a sponge trying to understand the charts, analysis, etc. that are posted in this forum.

I took a big hit yesterday (my stupidity) and would really like to make up part of it tomorrow with the NFP. While I have never traded the NFP before, I have been trying to learn about how to do it.

One strategy I saw that I want to run by the forum is the following:
-----
Open 2 trades (one long, one short) 5 - 10 mins before the NFP release. THe long would open 20 pips ahead of whatever the price is 5 - 10 mins before the NFP release and the short would open 20 pips lower than than the price 5 - 10 mins before) -- each having a 20 pip s/l. So a loss is inevitable on one trade, but it looks like the winning trade would profit well.
-----
That seems very simple, so I am missing something?

Most of you are probably pros in knowing how to make a sizable profit on the NFP. I would be most grateful for any strategies out there on how and when to enter trades to accomplish that goal.

Again, thank you all, for the education you bring to this forum and congrats to those who profited from today.
i think the best advise anyone can give you in regards to NFP is to stay far away from it, the thought of awesome pips can become the reality of massive losses in a matter of moments when your platform freezes and you are unable to close or do anything but watch. It can and has spiked 200 pips in seconds, running SL's in both directions, brokers have widened spreads to 20 50 and once in IBFX a few yrs ago 200 pips, yes that number is correct 200 pips. NFP is really not for anyone new to forex. the widening of spreads can kill the idea you have there and profit becomes a big loss and a nice payday for your broker

I have been fulltime 4 yrs now and still have only traded it once, I trade the aftermath when the market has stabalized and come back to its senses.

Fortunes can be made but those that lose a fortune out number those that make them.

all but the most expereinced traders trade the NFP, it is better left alone. Trade when the dust settles and be safe

Last edited by CodyB; 07-31-2008 at 11:52 PM.
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