Japanese GDP was up:

JAPAN APR-JUNE PRELIMINARY ANNUALIZED GDP GROWTH WAS 0.8%

JAPAN APR-JUNE REVISED ANNUALIZED GDP UP 1.0%

seeing a bounce from the lower bolli and the (now) signif. triple bottom @ 217.40/50.
booked a 130pip proft yesterday, got out cos of stretched hourlies. looking to get back in on a dip towards 219. this pair doesn't seem to respect fibs so LT looking at the top of the bolli band and previous high at 223.50. With this pair anything's possible and we could see a test of the channel top LT. Certainly favour the risk/reward of a long at this point.

didn't see any dips, went long at 221.40 looking for 223.50
cable looking strong again, euro looking like it wants to test 150.00 again, any G7 surprises look to be off the table so got to go with the obvious uptrend. Could get bit on the butt as gbp/jpy has a habit of doing....stop under 217.4

Hi...

A possible new direction for Geppy time will tell...

__________________
regards

John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

Dear John,

Yes, as GBP has stalled at 1.8900 handle, and G8 impact on Yen strnegth a possibility, the move for GBPJPY back to 210/13 range seems more likely...

I'm planning to enter the GBPJPY shorts tomorrow towards market close..still debating on how big the stop should be...on one hand, knowing how jerky GBPJPY is, anything less than 50 PIPs looks like a sure 'gift' to market...but any larger stop might bite me back if there is a rally post G8...hmmm..any thoughts?

hi..

well nothing is sure and certain in this game..so I will be waiting for the trend to change...as yet it could be said its still in the rising trend and as such there is more chance I will take a long unless there is a strong push down today. I would be reluctant to go short on friday based on a days move down.

__________________
regards

John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

hi..

Geppy has had a few weak tries to break the previous days high without much luck so far...

__________________
regards

John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

Dear John,

Yes, I entered a short at 221.89 after the price failed at 222.00/20, have a stop at 222.39 and first target at 220.59...

My guess is maybe, traders are squaring their long JPY carry trade positions ahead of G8 in Asia today...the trend might continue in EU/US sessions as well..here is the chart based on which I entered this trade..

But I'm watching anxiously as prices had first bounce off 221.50...that should break by Asian close for the short to stay valid....

Just a personal observation for the geppy traders..

USD/JPY is approcahing the 8 year bear TL from 1998 which is currently at 118.70 so it only has another 100 pips to run before hitting that,

There could well be a reaction and pullback from there. Also the GBP strength of this week is purely as a result of the good UK data and the markets pricing in another rate hike in November, there will come a time when that hike is fully discounted.

I'm currently long on geppy but will be looking to reverse short when and if USD/JPY gets to that TL at 118.70

Just another viewpoint

__________________
John G

hi...

JohnG....yes I see..I had not looked at the monthly as daily just turned down from a trendline....there sure is heaps of things to take into consideration..

I am still on hold to enter into Geppy...still more chance I will go long but prepared to just sit the day out and wait for a trend to show itself..

Good luck with that trade ..Maratha

__________________
regards

John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

Hi John

I was fortunate and got in long just above 218.30 ( on a 1hr tenkan/kijun cross) If I didn't have that buffer I would also be waiting for an entry.


As Maratha correctly points out the risk is for carry liquidation before the G7, also Gold dropping causing JPY to rise as the spec players get out of their JPY funded gold longs. USD/JPY should find support around 117.30 but keeping an eye on it.

Geppy currently holding at the 4hr tenkan but if it closes much below that on this 4hr bar (3hrs from now) then will cover current longs and look to take a short dated (1 week) long call option with a strike in the 223's so I can load up with some risk free shorts if we get the pop higher next week.

__________________
John G

Dear JohnG,

Thanks for pointing out the monthly trend line...it definitely makes me nervous to hold my shorts unhedged into the weekend...

As of this writing, the 4-hr tenkan is holding the price..if price can break-thro' 221.10 (and not bounce from 220.90..naughty Geppy!), then 220.60 might open up for market close...

Will watch CPI and then any option roll offs at 1400 GMT...

Just wondering what you guys think about the yen. I am of the opinion that the yen getting ready for a fall. With the price making new highs but rsi continuing to fall on the daily chart. Do you guys pay attention to divergence or just support and resistance? Anyway just thoughts from a new trader.

Thanks

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hi...


well a good trade Maratha...well done...will you still hold over the weekend


Fss Side....jpy is in no mans land for me ..has been many 4hr bars going sideways..I would be just plain guessing if I tried to give an opinion on that pair right now..

__________________
regards

John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

Yeah as a new trader my account has been doing a lot of the same(just going sideways)lol. At least it is not going down. I am of the opinion that the yen is sitting at an important support level and if it breaks it will slide.

Just my opinion.