hi..


Its risky going against this trend.....so taking a chance..


Just went short..209.39

Looking like finally both gbp and jpy are rolling over....time will tell.

this market is so slow right now...would not surprise to see it go sideways the rest of the day...

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John M

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Hello folks, not sure where my first post disappeared to, however...short here at 208.94, got a little trigger happy earlier today....should have waited a bit. I was hoping for some negative mortgage news (losses) out of the UK, but no such luck thus far...we shall see.

Good luck all.

Agreed, bucking the trend can be risky...unless of course you are dealing with GBP/JPY...which tends to march to the beat of its own drum. lol

Dear All,

Strange price action so far...no clear break of 210, but neither confirmed rejection of 210...so, we are in no-man's land as of now.

In terms of price, there is still room for a breach of 210, however, I'm not sure if it would be a sustained breach or whether we would see massive profit taking/new shorts that would take the pair down few hundred PIPs...

I guess, a trade could emerge post GBP CPI data later in EU session...till then, just waiting on the side...

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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

thx Martha

hi...


Well I wake up to my trade being stopped out,,,

Now in 2 minds.....it has had a big move and logic would suggest a pull-back of some sort.

But I have said that before and it just keeps creeping up...

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John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

Hi...


The question I ask is.....why did the big traders that drove the price down and gapped it at the start of the trading week.....only to see a complete reversal well before the UK session, get it so wrong.....or did they..

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John M

Live long and prosper.
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Dear John,

I know...but the Sunday fake move played its part, IMHO. All financial markets are still showing bearish bias and hence, this upmove in carry (incl USDJPY) is surprizing for me as well.

Is the carry trade now acting as a leading indicator for financial markets? Are we near the bottom for stock indices for 2008? Are we at top for oil and commodities for 2008?

The answers to these questions tend to be yes, but my fear is that we might be too early to say yes. But looking at carry trades this week and last week, it seems that the big guys are saying yes and getting in at low end of the carry price.

Of course, this is little bit fundamentals based picture, while technically 211 may still cap the current rally for a retracement.

But, to swim in the direction of the big guys, going long on dips may indeed be the path to follow. However, the risk of a large pullback is definitely there and as of now, I can't tell whether it would be a pullback or resumption of a downmove towards 190-.

If it's resumption of the downtrend, then our longs would suffer and we would miss the opportunity to short at top for a nice long ride.

So, how do we define whether the price action is a pull-back or resumption of the downtrend? My approach would be to see if there is a break of 209 on the downside (4-hr close below 209), in which case the downtrend may be intact.

So, I would take a long at 209.50 or lower w stop at 208.50 (half position) and add to the position in case of a 209- test w target of 211+. I would also put a short order at 208.25 w stop at 209.25 and target of 205-. Let's see which trade kicks in first...

PS: Oh, and in case of a 210 break (4-hr close above 210), I would wait for a retracement towards 209.75 to go long or failure at 211 to take a short...so many trades, so little time..

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

hi....


Well Maratha.....it just shot through 210....Bernanke talking now..

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John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

Hi..


Just grabbed a quick 25 pips scalp off top..

There is a short term trend line that the price has to move past to confirm any possible new down trend.....a break around 209.80 .

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John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.

you got back to my analysis Maratha .... good choice to go long at around 209.50 ... was a little impatient there, but things going well ... and it's going beyond 211+ ... next major resistance is 213 ... if that was broken then we long for 214 ... GL all

It seems buyers should be careful around these levels.

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Ok Maratha we got some serious movement so whats the next move ?? is it time to short down to 199.-??

with a little delay (2 days) GBPJPY is reacting to the risk aversion trades going on. Was at first supported by the GBPUSD surge higher, but failure to break 1.9800 took the steam out of GBP rally.
I was waiting for a test of 211.13, but seems the train heas left the station without me....not gonna chase it now, waiting for a pullback (if any?) to jump in targetting the lows

Hi...


I will only be taking a long at this point...the trend is still up..looking at the 4hr.


So after all that rush of blood wanting to get in..I am sitting back and waiting for it to be where (and doing what ) I want..no more chasing a trade.

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John M

Live long and prosper.
Any information in this post is for discussion purposes only.