i agree s g to 111

Dear Willaballa,

Congratulations! Where is your stop-loss? The pair is notorious for the Sunday open whip-saws in Asia. 212.60 doesn't seem unachievable, if the opening move is to the downside. If the opening move is to the upside, it could extend to 215 handle (and some more), so watch out for the stop...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

I don't use stop-losses, I hedge and just watch the market and use a discretionary stop- loss.

Short from 213.04, SL 213.40. Boring....snore.

Dear All,

I'm still inclined towards a long, so entered a long (half position) at 213, stop 212.50 and target 214.50 or better.

If the pair breaks 213.25, then will stay in the trade, else, might fold or move stop to b/e...here is to the new week!

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Whats your reasoning behind the long? Ive exited my 213.04 short about an hour ago at b/e as it wasn't going my way fast enough for my tastes. Still, for the pound to rise against the yen, the dollar must rise. Is that what you think will happen? Please share your perspective.

Dear Fish,

1. The next Fib for drop from 250 to 193 is at 215 handle (which is quite tempting for bulls who are riding this pair from 195 or so)
2. Risk appetite is on rise again, so carry should be back in favour (with strong US market close last week)
3. GBPJPY typically provides a fake move on Sunday open

So, entering a low risk trade towards long side as of now. As Tokyo is on holiday today, the trade may not work (hence, my half position), but the setup looks reasonable.

PS: Technically, there is a nice bearish divergence on hourly charts as of now, but due to oversold hourlies, the pair may push higher one more time before retracement/reversal.

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

It has indeed been a slow and gradual decline. Right now, it is at around 212.75, the Euro/London markets will be opening soon, which should either accelerate faster or reverse its decline.

Well to quote Stryker "patience is a virtue." Unfortunately Ive been lacking it of late, and now I wish I hadn't closed that position. Still, Martha may be right yet. Are you still holding that 212 short?

It would be fair to say Geppy rarely moves during the early hrs. Anyhow, i have covered some of my shorts for a little loss, the rest are close to break even now. I wanted to short somemore at >213 but have missed the opportunity. Having looked at the charts again, i think 211.6 is achievable, but let's see if it can break 212.5 first. There was a report out today stating that UK economy might be worst than expected so that could have been bringing the pound down today.

Well its broken 212.50. Where to next? Any thoughts?

Good morning all, I am short @ 212.50 Sl @ 213.00 Tp @ 211.50
Mike

10:06 GMT July 21 Cable fell to an intra-day low of 1.9908 in early European
trade, as the continent absorbed ultra-dovish comments from BoE MPC member David
Blanchflower in today"s Guardian. Blanchflower says: "I think we are going into
recession and we are probably in one right now. It"s not too late to stop it but
we have to act right now. Monetary policy has been far too tight for too long".
Blanchflower also believes the ILO"s measure of UK unemployment could rise
to more than 7%, from 5.2% at present. The Ernst & Young Item Club, meanwhile,
has warned that the number of Britons out of work will rise from 1.6 million to
more than two million within 18 months (Daily Telegraph, p1).
Only 8.29% of HBOS shareholders decided to take up their rights in the
bank"s GBP 4bn rights issue (FT website). Asking prices for UK homes have fallen
by 1.8% over the past month (Rightmove). Robert.Howard@thomsonreuters.com

Well my SL was just hit! This pair frustrates me sometimes. Its a real pisser sometimes.

The pair ran into some serious resistance at 213.50/214.00 with the 200 Day SMA, Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibo of 228.32-192.44. If we break below the 20 Day SMA, I would look to go short with the 50 Day SMA as the next support line.

Attached Images