What do you guys say? are we bottom out for now? 800PIPs up from Friday low?

Hi DollarBull,
You are so right about this pair, the only problem is hard the catch the turning point.
Good luck
Paul

I hope you did close the position after it hit if your order still in place. This afternoon is crazy.
Best wishes.
Paul

Did anyone else lose THOUSANDS over the weekend because their stops werent hit, or was it just me? FXCM are basically saying tough sh*t and deal with it...

50-75 pts move up/down in this pair is the "noise level" change.

What I think might happen is, 900 pip gain in a matter of few hours on thin volume won't stand up for the rest of the day and this might fall from (presently near 194) back to 188 soon enough. Reason being, the equity markets will be spooked like hell on Monday, given that the entire shares of Fannae Mae et al got wiped out over the weekend. With wall street falling it may bring down its correlated FX pairs JPY crosses.

You mean a black Monday again? it is always happen on a Monday or Friday, don't it? but on the other hand, may be is a relieve to the uncertainty batttle like last month when I closed the long losing trade.

Dear Paul,

My long order was filled at 194 and closed at my stop loss of 193 (-100 PIPs), was not at terminal otherwise would have manually closed it at b/e. I still like the upside break, but want to wait for EU open...will go long at 194+ again with tighter stop at 193.75 with same target near 200.

On Fannie and Freddie, I think the wall street may like it afterall and financial may get a boost (especially stocks like AIG) tomorrow. Basically, now US government is throwing all its credibility behind the mortgage meltdown and this should help calming the nerves for a short while at least.

Aah ... didn't think my long at 194 would be filled so soon...well, should've waited till EU open to enter the pending long order...anyways, now that the trade is on...will see how it develops...as this trade was triggered before my planed time, have already moved stop to b/e on this one...to avoid any whipsaw towards EU open on thin volume...but, momentum looks good, if 195.50 gets broken, then we are headed for 200 this week...good luck all!

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

HI Maratha,
The 195.50 be tested now, do you think when EU open will push this pair higher?
Paul

On the 4H, GBPJPY has closed above the 20SMA trendline although there's a big gap up from the previous candle! (It's been awhile indeed). This could indicate a reversal but price action has been very volatile today and could just be a fake breakout.

[quote=Maratha;185095]Dear Paul,

On Fannie and Freddie, I think the wall street may like it afterall and financial may get a boost (especially stocks like AIG) tomorrow. Basically, now US government is throwing all its credibility behind the mortgage meltdown and this should help calming the nerves for a short while at least.
QUOTE]

why would the wall street like it when billions of dollars worth shares get wiped out over a weekend? I think the investors will lose confidence and abandon USD and stock market. They will head to Gold. Or other havens. How is the US govt going to cover up for the mortgage losses? Even Treasuries will be abandoned. Sky is falling.

Dear Paul,

Yes, that's what my guess is...but you know this pair!

Dear DollarBull,

Look at the DOW futures...they are +250 points and rising...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Well, I will short at 195.20 and take my chances. Will see this back under 190. Increased debt is NEVER good. Destroying billions worth shares will shatter investor confidence.

Dear DollarBull,

You are right that the equity of Fannie and Freddie is wiped out, but look at it other way....this is the bottom for financials with US govt stepping in to provide the required guarantee against the bad loans.

Also, most of the equity wipeout happened till Friday close, so would we see any fresh drop in markets this week? Market sold the rumour of lack of federal backing and may now very well buy the news of federal support!

Let's see how the week shapes up...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Dear All,

Didn't like the pair dropping through 194.75, so closed the trade at 194.50 (+50 PIPs)...will wait to see how low the pair goes...191.00-191.50 is the first noticeable support...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Dear All,

Ok, here is a second try at long from 193...stop at 192.50 and target 199.50...let's see if this one sticks around...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes