Where do you think it's headed?

Hi justy,
I guess short term will go up?

Based on what?

Looking ahead to the US session, I think longs are the better play. Lehman will reassure investors (already in after hours trading it is ~$.50 above the closing price), TI announced better than anticipated earnings, Google announced TV ads, Steve Jobs is not dying, and Fedex boosted profit forecast.

Technically, GBP/USD looks ready to rocket higher while USD/JPY appears ready for another bounce within the choppy downtrend. GBP/JPY has held post-NFP lows in Asia and bounced 150 pips with a nice 3 point uptrend line now in place.

We are in consolidative mode until the next event. Buy dips and sell rips. Myself, I am long at 188.11, looking for 192.

I see we are now testing the downtrend line from post Franny high... took some profit... a break above increases short term bullish conviction.

Why the bloody hell should a taxpayer like me take on YOUR debt burden just because fools signed up for exhorbitant home mortgages and greedy underwriters went on an irresponsible spree?

That is nonsense. You think people aren't complaining about high taxes in US?
Do you honesty even understand the bailout? It has nothing to do with who pays and who collects mortgages. It is about SAVING THE BONDHOLDERS!!! If Fannae Mae and Freddie Mac filed for bankruptcy the only consequence would be THE BONDHOLDERS WON'T GET PAID! Nothing will stop the regular mortgage payments, defaults, missed payments, notices, collections or whatsoever of the operations of these companies!!! Jeez, can't some of you people even TRY to understand who is being protected?

1. Scare Tactics.

2. Bailout has nothing to do with homeowners!!! Their payments are not decreased. No changes!!!
All BS explanations fed to common people to take on more debt owned by someone else. If you went to a bank for a $100 loan to bail you out you have to explain how you are going 'start making money again' and how you are going to pay back to the bank. Nothing whatsoever was detailed by these companies to the government. Or, why dont YOU explain when they are going to be paying back the government? Amortization? Term sheets? Timeline? Collateral?

Same scare tactics that sky is falling when Bear Stearns went belly up. Fed had to tell congress to urgently write a law during a weekend because SCARE TACTICS if we don't act SKY WILL FALL ON US... and if we don't bailout Fannae Mae SKY WILL FALL ON US and if we don't bail out (coming soon to a theater near you) LEHMAN BROTHERS SKY WILL FALL ON US...

Dollarbull:

I must disagree with you on the consequences of a Franny failure (that is, the inability to roll over debt). There are two arguments for saving Franny.

First reason for bailout is political: foreign governmental entities hold a lot of this debt. If they don't get paid back, it seems to me that would be a failure of the wink and nod promise to back that debt and this would negatively impact the creditworthiness and credibility of the US government. I for one don't like the thought of our credibility throughout the world declining any more than it already has.

Second reason is economic: the ripple effects would be catastrophic. Franny alone was keeping home lending going. It's not about their current holdings; it's about their ability to continue buying. Without them the cost of a mortgage would skyrocket. Who could fill the void to lend? Home prices would plummet. Credit spreads would rise. Lending activity would cease. Risk aversion would spike and extreme stress would be put on leveraged firms and bad positions. The economy would grind to a halt.

While one could argue this all would be a natural consequence of free market capitalism and should be left alone, what's unnatural about this particular situation is that no private company would have gotten so big and yet so undercapitalized without such implicit backing by the government. The reality is that it's time to put an end to this odd model of private realization of gains but public realization of losses.

Already we have seen positive effects from the bailout: mortage interest rates have dropped significantly.

With all due respect, I think you underestimate the importance of the real estate industry and availability of credit as the backbone of the US economy. If we can put government to work to help people at a minimal cost, and maybe a profit in a few years, why not?

That makes sense...just wish i knew that before


Paul...Why not stop asking stupid questions and get yourself educated in order for you to do you own analysis!

I wish more FX bucket shops offered stop market orders rather than just the normal stop orders. I've been caught a couple different times where price gapped over my stop and I wasn't around to catch it in time. A stop market order would fix that issue. That's the way it goes I guess.

Hmmm will have to look into that

Meantime im heading for bed, gn all...

Rix, please save those childish and personally insulting pictures to some BS yahoo message board. Let's keep this message board down to business only.

I didn't say that we should be excited to take the tax burden. I didn't say the the middle/upper class were looking forward to paying more taxes. My point, one which you completely disregarded and blew way out of proportion but that's okay anyway, is that there isn't going to be a huge liquidation of those two companies. By spreading the burden to the taxpayers, if that's even the case, it's at least supporting the economy for the time being. And that's the point. The government is trying to slow down the death spiral. If you're really that hard up for the few dollars it will cost you personally, I'll help you out. I'm sure I've got some spare change floating around somewhere.


If Fannie and Freddie went belly up, then who would buy any new mortgages? Who would insure them? In a market where things are as shaky as they are right now, it's important that those companies remain in a position to keep doing the thing they were intended to do. They are there to provide local banks with federal money to finance American mortgages.


Actually it has a lot to do with homeowners. If Freddie and Fannie weren't there to buy the mortgages in the secondary mortgage market, then where would HOMEOWNERS get the loan money? From the magical money tree? Local banks sure wouldn't be able to just front the money to each person who wants to borrow money for a home. That's why these two companies need to remain in business.


All I've read so far is that Paulson wants them to reduce the size of their companies starting in 2010. And I've also read that the companies were going to start making payments back to the government.

Margin calls and mass liquidation are what caused the price to fall so fast during the 1929 stock market crash. You ever heard of Black Monday? That was due to margin calls/mass liquidation. The tech bubble... Same thing. If Fannie and Freddie were to all of a sudden fail, you can bet the same sort of thing would happen. That's what the government was trying to prevent. It's really not that hard to understand. But if it makes you feel good to get all huffy and puffy about it then go ahead. Have fun.

Dear All,

My long from 189 was stopped out at b/e sometime in US session. Looking at price now, have reentered the long at 188.25 with stop at 187.75 and target of 190 (first) and 195 (second)...

There seems to be good support around 187 area as of now. Let's see if that reflects into a good rally for GBPJPY or not...I'm still targeting 200 area for this move...let's see.

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

HI,
Few atempt to break 187.500 area and didn't go through, maybe that will hold for now? Justy, Price range like this which technical indicators are you use to find the direction?
Thank you.
Paul

The EMA's and MACD's on the daily and weekly are still pointing lower. That's the direction I'm using until one of those conditions is no longer pointing lower.

Hi Justy,
What number do you use on the MACD to confirm the trend? The daily?my software come default with 12, 26, 9.
The daily on the EMA5, 21 still say down trend, and the MACD also said down with the 12,26,9. So what do you say?
Thanks
Paul