Any guesses on if there is a bottom? I think that we have a little ways to go before a bottom is found...especially with no good news to come out of the UK anytime soon...Japan is not much better off, but the JPY will drive this a bit further I think.

I am not skilled in forecasting........ some other members of the group use some techniques such as EW and that gives them insights. perhaps they will post their charts and views and enlighten us.

My charts are showing divergences which point to an upward move...... BUT.... it aint happenin... nuffin is happenin...!!

LOL

Don't worry, everyone else is in the dark also, no one can chart this activity right now...and be anywhere close to accurate....although I think that it may stay down in this arena for a bit more, until either some good news comes out of the UK, or bad news comes out of Japan, right now, economics is driving this pair mostly.

It has been all bad out of the UK lately, hence the almost 30 days of dropping straight down, better economics out of Japan right now....but not for long...soon this thing will reverse up.

Hey Guys,

This is the longer term Elliott Wave count I've been following. There are five waves down so far on this weekly chart, so now over the next several months we should see price rally up to somewhere near 215.00. It could go higher but that's a good number to work with for now.

Once that correction is completed, we'll then see the trade of a lifetime as all JPY crosses will start to fall again. We'll see GBP/JPY fall in excess of 7000 pips!

In the near term, we should see GBP/JPY find a bottom and start it's rally up to about 215.00.

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Exited at 188.60, (+200) since anything the Asian markets do gets undone in European market, so I will wait to buy back on a dip.

Hi Guys,
I am try to get my self educated. I try to study the Babypips.com lessons, here I have few problems that need your help to setup the system.
If I am looking for a short term trading, say 1-4 hours, looking for 30 to 50 PIPS profit.
Trading on GBP/YAN using 5 EMA and 14 EMA, Stochastic (10,3,3) and RSI (14) for indicators. What time Chart should I use? 15mins, 30mins or 1 hour? What stop lost should I use (PIP)?
Thank you.
Paul

Hi Paul,

For short-term trading, i would normally use the 15 min and 1h charts using moving averages and sto 12,3,3 as indicators. Also, when price action has moved >150 pips from where it was, it tends to retrace back ~ 50-75 pips or to the 20 SMA. This does happen every now and then so you just have to be patient.
For example on the 15 min chart today, the price shot up from ~186.7 to ~188.8 before pulling back to its 20SMA of ~187.6.
For stop losses, you have to decide what your r:r is.

Hi freekick,
Thank you. when you use 2 different time chart, don't them will give you two different signal? can you explain please?
thanks again.
Paul

Hi Paul,

As it is only short-term trading, the 1h chart helps to show where support, resistance is and what the range of each hourly candle were for the last few hours of trade. Prices also tend to fall back to the 5,10 EMA. For entries, that is where the shorter 15m chart would come in.

Generally, i would prefer to use this method on pairs with daily ranges of not more than 100 pips.
Having said that, you should actually try out various indicators and see which fits your trading hours.

Hope that helps.

The weekly ranges are:

Low High Range
8-Sep 188.44 195.38 724
9-Sep 187.76 190.95 319
10-Sep 187.17 190.16 293
11-Sep 185.85 188.95 310
12-Sep 187.56 190.71 315

Current price at 190.57. Throwing out the Monday Fanny and Freddy high, the mean high for Tues-present equal 190.19. We should see some profit taking on the London close during the next two hours.

Thus, I am short at 190.55.
Just added another short at 191.20

New daily high 192.14 @ 11:00 EST. Both trades were stopped out at -66pips.

Perhaps, we have finally seen the bottom at 185-187.

Correct, maybe we have seen the bottom, we shall see.

A very strange day for me, as all the fundamental and other market things besides technical that I watch were very uncorrelated to the rise in JPY pairs. Technicals and flows rule in this market. Clearly the a significant bottom is in...

Having said that, the VIX is on its way to 30, and when that happens, carry will be sold. Everything will be sold. I suspect next week the Asians will take some profits and use the dramatic rise to unload underwater longs and Japanese exporters will get in all their hedging that they put off even as EUR/JPY plunged below 150. Use these opportunities to build up longs for the ride to 225!

Yea what a stunning way to end the week, which can be attributed to the pound strength (+2%) against the dollar rather than JPY weakness. It also looks like the downtrend on the 4H 20SMA from many many weeks ago has finally broken convincingly so i guess its time to look for long opportunities (barring any collapse of LEHMAN).

Anyone care to comment on this 30 min chart pulled off of vt demo platform that seems to be streaming over the weekend again like it did last weekend.

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That chart was taken off well before the close. price advanced a lot further up....... and looks like an uptrend under way..

Because it is the weekend.. there could be substantial changes occur before the market opens Sunday...... personally..... I like to see what happens after the Asian market has been open a few hours before assessing direction, although this one appears to be in an uptrend....