This is based on long-term Elliott Wave counting: Once the decline is over in a few years, we'll see all JPY crosses stage a multi-year rally. We could see USD/JPY up near 130-150, the GBP/JPY back up to 230-250, and the rest of the JPY crosses up as well. Those would be initial long term targets, but price could head much higher. That's all long term stuff though. In the near term, I think GBP/JPY is headed lower. Much Lower.

A third hourly close above 184.50! In addition, divergence on hourly RSI.

I'd wait for a corrective bounce of a couple big figs to short for 180 or look to go long as risk aversion is hitting extreme levels... if the recent pattern holds, extreme moves are not maintained for long without a retracement.

Ooo, divergence broken. Capitulation to 179.50-180?

with stoploss at 183.70; if I lose Maratha wins!
Not much to risk except $34.

If it goes up I will keep moving the stoploss up with a difference of 30 pips.

"whole LOT" - yup, it is against my theory to trade anything larger than 1 lot. There is plenty of fish in sea, so why assume we lose opportunity?

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Ok, Maratha wins AGAIN, as usual! Congrats!

Dear DollarB,

May we both win! Do you have any specific upside target in mind?

Dear BroyB,

Maybe...actually, I was thinking if USD would replace Yen as the carry instrument eventually...as of now, the export dependent Japanese economy (and hence, Yen) may not benefit that much.

For GBPJPY, I'm mainly banking on GBP weakness over next year or so. GBPUSD on monthly charts has a good history of retracing upto/beyond 61.8% Fib of major moves and currently that fib level is at 1.6500...assuming that USDJPY stays in 100-105 range, GBPJPY can be projected to 165 to 175 range.

At 1.6500, if GBPUSD bounce back, then we could see a reversal in GBPJPY from 170 level, while if GBPUSD breaks through 1.6500, it may drop to 1.5500, 1.5000 and eventually to 1.3700 or lower and take GBPJPY with it for a ride (as Justy pointed out in his charts)

This could coincide with slowdown in UK economy and bursting of housing prices/leveraged financial industry in UK.

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Just opened a new long at 181.00; StopLoss 30 pips. Target 187. A whole 1 LOT as usual!

got stopped out at +20 pips (since I move stoploss with the price).

Waiting to find another entry pt to go long and looking at 5 min charts

Dear All,

Wow! That is a fast and furious ride....first breather at 181, looks like...Let's see what EU does...maybe, the next leg of GBP weakness below 1.7400?

That would take GBPJPY to 179, my first target...I plan to close the whole position at 180 or lower and reenter on break of 179 or bounce back to 183 area...let's see if it plays out...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Dear DollarB,

Good luck! I personally have been pretty unlucky in picking bottoms/tops of large moves as the price can be so volatile in those areas.

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Dear All,

Looks like Asia is exhausted by the current move...time for correction till EU open...have moved stop to b/e...plan to add half position if the current bounce goes to 184...

These are the times when I still don't know whether to take profit on current position and wait for the next entry or to ride the correction out for eventual achievement of my target...hmmm...always something to learn in this business ...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Maratha and Dollar Bull

You two must have needed a break. market has stalled for a bit.LOL

This has been an exciting few hours..

Could be a tweezer on this chart, seems to have lost direction

I like to have this open when using a one minute chart. just to keep the perspective

Attached Images

 

I agree, it is a lousy strategy to bottomfish. But after 700 pt drop in a ridiculous Asian market selling, I think the risk/rewar encourages me to bottomfish. This time I will but 1 lot at 181.00 with a larger stoploss (40 pips). If it loses, I will wait for 180.00 to bottomfish.

Dear All,

OK, I cashed out at 182 just now (+300 PIPs)...will reenter in US session again...too sleepy...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

nice work.......!!

Amazing move for Asia. I'm playing a bounce to 184.

Ugh, stopped out below 180.68. Should have paid more attention to the rejection from 182.35 hourly range high.

Dear All,

Nice ride! Just took a long at 179.25 w stop at 178.75 and target of 180.50 or better...will fold if price doesn't move in my direction given that this is a counter-trend trade...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes