There are two possible technical reasons Monk that I have seen. One is a ZLR on the WCCI hour chart and the other is a Wolfe wave on the 4hr.
If the WW is true and it behaves like a genuine one then be very careful shorting.

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%

Lava,

I'd like to be bullish and see the WW, but even with the eye of faith I can't spot it on the charts, can you post what you see ?

Ideally, a pull back to 235.30 should take place...on the other hand, if it hasn't happened so far, chances of it materializing are getting slimmer. But for the upside, I don't see a potential unless 236.50 is broken..and if the market can't break upside, then it will try to take out downside...so, IMHO, 236.50/235.70 are the levels to watch...236.50 break is good for long, 235.70 for a tight short...my

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

Ideally, a pull back to 235.30 should take place...on the other hand, if it hasn't happened so far, chances of it materializing are getting slimmer. But for the upside, I don't see a potential unless 236.50 is broken..and if the market can't break upside, then it will try to take out downside...so, IMHO, 236.50/235.70 are the levels to watch...236.50 break is good for long, 235.70 for a tight short...my long from 235.68 is still sitting...ate interest of 3 PIPs and have stop at b/e...

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

evening Maratha......how was you nights sleep?

i stayed up for the NY open thinking there would be some action.....caught a couple small scalps. Nothing that good.

looking for the next rally.

Hi Andy,
Personally I think everyones still in shock from yesterdays fiasco but as far as the charts look technically.

My 4hr is showing plenty of upside up into the 239.20 area, riding just between 38 but 50 headed for the 50 fib, first major stop should be 237.20 then 237.50-90 and after that 239's should be in sight with the 100 fib sitting at 241.30 area. This is of course barring any other unforseen (stupid) DOPPY (for the first time I now see why someone named JPY DOPPY) interactions. (did I say JPY was DOPPY yet?)

Also the 1hr chart has a nice bullish engulfing candle working but then again the 4hr is working on a bearish one of its own which would be smart to keep an eye on whether it develops or not (I doubt it will). The daily is looking really good showing nothing but up..

Hope this helps.
N

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I LOVE AND ALMOST ALWAYS USE STOP LOSS ORDERS ;) :) ;)
I just tend to set them too close

Thanks N - helpful post

I'm in long now with another order at 235 just in case. Perhaps a little premature but looking at the dailies, its as good a bet over the coming days as forex ever is

I feel we're back on a ride up to new highs, albeit a bumpy one, and would be very surprised if new lows were plumbed. The only doubt in my mind is book squaring prior to the tax year end, which will keep me on edge during Feb/March. However, with all the liquidation over the past few weeks I wonder whose left!

I guess, we didn't see real liquidation so far...but, I don't think anyone wants to liquidate now..only downside risk is bad UK data...but again, that would be few hundred PIPs ... in all, breaking 230 would be tough...so, the ride is pointing up for sure...let's wait for our turn!

__________________
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Keynes

so any thoughts on the late asia and begining of the london sessions?

Monk,

I"m waiting for 4:30 EST GBP data.

Hmm, what kind of reaction did you expect to the interest rate hike?

A 900-pip movement, perhaps?

Maybe you didn't notice, but we already had that in the past week. The
market had already priced-in a certainty of the rate hike.

So the reaction to the hike was a lot of dumb money going long the Yen
when the move was just about through, unaware of

a) the market is a price discounting mechanism for future expectations,
b) the fact that 0.50% is still a lot less than every other currency on Earth,
and
c) Fukui's remarks after the fact to be a gentle, loving, cuddly, cooing, dove
(hedgies were more afraid of 0.75% in March and 1.0% in April; if that's not
happening the greedy SOBs in Malibu, Cabo and Cayman are going to
continue partying like it's 1999.)

You then saw the low prices were rejected by the market-as-a-whole. You
had smart money that shorted a week ago north of 241 taking their profits,
and then you had a lot of weak-kneed shorts (who bought the Yen from the
smart money players) dribbling their hard-earned money away on a really bad
idea when they covered, and finally when the all-clear was given you had
investment banks and Japanese investors putting the carry trade back on, so
the Yen was sold right on back to where we are now.

(Do I have actual evidence of these factors, no, it's BS to explain prices like
this.. it certainly makes the smart money look overly smart and the dumb
money look more dumb then just plain foolish -- but if you've been around
the block a few times you'll know that's a read every trader knows is going
to be a risk before they short into an event like that.)

The trend is UP. It is death-defyingly, dizzingly, 1999 .com boom up. It is
so up, I want to hurl, so watch out below.

- E/J

you have a preference tonight for GBP/USD vs GBP/JPY?

gbp is a safer bet I'd say but look how much fun geppy can be.

Does anyone have any inkling of what how the data is likely to come out tonight? Anyone?

N

__________________
I LOVE AND ALMOST ALWAYS USE STOP LOSS ORDERS ;) :) ;)
I just tend to set them too close

OK. Now went throught the G7 messup and BOJ messup, I think the market is [edited] us.

2 weeks before G7 --DOWN--"It will call out YEN!!!"
1 week before G7--UP--"No. Even they call, what they can do???"
After G7--DOWN--"Maybe a undertable deal!!!"
Before BOJ--UP--"Heck, a rate hike is nothing!!!"
Right before BOJ--DOWN--"Damn. A hike is coming!!!"
Right after BOJ--UP--"Heck, one hike, interest is still low!!!"
A little while after BOJ--DOWN--"Maybe more hikes coming!!!"

I may not short right now, but if this is right, then we will see a turn to the downside. I guess it may or may not happen today, but may happen before weekend or right from next week. Basically we may see a 122 before 118 in Doppy. May not see 122 (like 121.40 or 80).

Hi Andy the Wolfe wave is on Doppy.

Here is the chart. I cut my longs a bit early and am now waiting for a pullback to re-enter depending on circumstances. Hence I am happy to show the chart.

Attached Images

 

__________________
Keep in mind that neither success nor failure is ever final. --Roger Babson (1875-1967)
YTD +5%