What does Ichimoku indicate?

Here is a 1hr, 30day Ichimoku chart. Price is still below cloud.
I am short GBp/JPY at 200.012.

Attached Thumbnails

 

Hi

I follow ichimoku on a 2 hrs basis, and i consider the kijun sen cross to be the most reliable indicator. whit this in mind gbp/jpy has to get over 201.03 to change the bearish bias

I agree that the kijun sen cross is very reliable. I just finished reading Nicole Elliott's Ichimoku Charts: An introduction to Ichimoku Kinko Clouds. The examples in the colored charts in the book are excellent. A very worthwhile read about Ichimoku charts.

Hi,

What is your target for this trade?

Cheers,
-PE

PE, I am looking for 199.00, if it moves even lower it would be great. For most of this week the GBP/JPY has been in a fairly narrow daily range of 100-150pips. I am going to get out of this trade late Friday, as I do not like to leave any open trades over the weekend.

I am thinking that the Asian Friday will bring about more on the downside, as folks will unload their longs before the weekend.

ok....short at 199.75.....

now is when it shoots back to 203 and kills me both ways in 24 hours.

BAH!!

I guess you will be alright as everybody said it will goto 197. I hope it won't go down that far and shoot back.
good luck. I feel for you, even through you won't want to be in my position now!!
Best wishes.

Downtrend is still intact.

Attached Images

 

Dear Spartan,
Your Jchart seems to be a good tool, it points out nearly exactly entry and exit points.
Would you please share with us where to get it and how to use it.

Thank you very much in advance.
Peter

Dont get greedy; Just take your profit for the week and plan your evening beer party!

It already killed me today, the rotten gamble to bottomfish!

Ok....still short from 199.75
Setting a stop at 198.50 and forgetting about it for the weekend.

Hi DollarBull,
Look like the JPY gain strength acroos the board, Do you think there still chance for this pair to shoot back to 210 in the near term before it dip to 190 or below?
Thanks.

I use my own "markov models" (state-space system) to recognize targets. GBPJPY was below 190 a few years ago. When a similar set of conditions arise it could go back below that price. However, I see that Japanese economy is also reporting to be weak and JPY will be sold off in favor of carry trades. This will send JPY back above 120 and take GBPJPY to 220 and beyond. GBP is way oversold. I think it may recover next week, just like AUD showed some recovery. So, I expect GBPJPY to quickly return above 200 soon enough. I think 210 is now a bit more likely than 190, based on the fact that the price collapse was not from JPY drop. This pair is mainly driven by JPY (high correlation) than GBP.

In doing some research, I noticed that the GBP/JPY has decline every August for ten straight years. In the attached chart of the past three years, please note that the RSI has been nearly oversold in March and August in all three years. September(s) has also been a declining month for this pair. Perhaps, the new automobile/electronics year starting in October leads to the pair making an upturn; then, in January it takes another dive. Thus, the pair may continue to drop to 190 in September before a rebound in October.

Attached Thumbnails