GBPUSD looks to be hugging support on a very distinct penant. Often times this evolves into a continuation formation, but that would conflict with a longer-term falling trend channel. And, I always give right of way to the formations on higher time frames. That being said, since there are no major technicals coming out for the next 24 hours, we could see the top of the flag break to the upper node of the falling channel around 1.9850/70.

While this would could be a quick, high-prob pop, I would not pursue it because the risk reward isn't attractive enough. On the other hand, if we can get some overnight greenback interest, a move through that 38.2% at 1.9825 could spur a significant move - perhaps to 1.9775 or 1.9715. That's where I will be looking, but if it happens anytime in the next day, it will most likely come on the Asian session or early euro session so I will have to put a limit order in.

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Hey, that was a spot on analysis, how did you arrive at that conclusion. Ive been tearing my hair out trying to guess where the market would go after that period of consolidation and even after i decided i still wasnt certain. I read fundamentals looked at lots of technical stuff (supports, resistance, fibonnacci, macd) and still couldnt garner a definitive view. Even after the move i cant explain what happened except for the crappy figure that was released for the GBP todayl, and i dont think the figure should have had such a profound impact.

HELP! How did you nail it!?!?!?!?!?!?

Hello thebeginner,

I was wrong all over the place on that outlook. The break higher went farther than I expected and the most of the moves happened at times opposite of when I thought they would. It just seems correct because I was messing with high probabilities.

Technical analysis is obviously important in my setups to first establish the rough probabilities. If for example if I see a strong range with three confirmed touches on both resistance and support, that starts to form the overall likelihood that a trade will move in my favor. For this step, I use multiple time frames depending on how long I expect to be in the trade.

Timing is probably the more important factor. For the longer term, you just need to rely on your outlook and analysis. But for the short-term (15-mintue, 1-hour, 4-hour) you can cheat by familiarizing yourself with the calednar. I have been watching the reaction to different releases month after month, and I try to establish which ones are gauranteed market movers and how much they tend to move the market. This takes a while to acclaimate to, but it is essential to familiarize yourself to everything that may move the market, regardless of what you actually trade. From the economic calendar, I knew that there was no UK indicator on the docket and the next report that could actually move things would be the consumer confidence report from the US. Since the US number probably wouldn't have shocked the market too much (since we had a University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey released earlier in the month), I thought most of the major technical levels would hold.

Of course price action spilled over the 'perfect' levels that I laid out and the timing was off; but the overall direction of things played out pretty well. No matter how good I think the probabilities are, there are often situations where data surprises or a broad push in a single currency builds, and my levels are overrun. But, as long as your entry is good, stops are wide enough, you have an equitable risk/reward ratio and you have a percievable edge (it could be virtually anything); then you will be off to a good start.

Hi John G, just visited this forum today and seen your mention of someone you know who uses Delta. I also use this and have found an additional time frame that nobody else knows about. The time frame I use has about 15 to 17 turn points per trading week of 120 hours. I will prepare the chart and display on this thread soon. Good trading to all here. Russell.

The attachment is my cyclical analysis using Delta principles for gbpusd, covering this week. There are 17 turn points over this weeks trading of 120 hours (17:00 Sunday to 16:00 Friday). Use at your own discretion. I use 15 minute charts to trade by. The numbers at the top of the graph are highs and the numbers below are lows. The numbered turn points are for purposes of identification and nothing else.

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Looks like the 2 low is in and now moving to the 3 high due about 17:00 New York time.

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Although the cycles are determined using gbpusd historical data, it also can be used for eurusd as it has the same cycle pattern.

Price is moving to the 3 high due about 17:00 today NY time. I am looking to sell the next rally on the 5 minute chart for a move to the 4 low, looking to pick up maybe 35 pips or so.

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Where did everyone go? Hello....

Shorting pound into an uptrend can be a very painful experience make sure you keep your stops close

Yes, you are correct. It did turn out to be a 14 pip loss.

Here's this weeks cycle lined up with a 30 minute chart of gbpusd so far this week.

Hey guyz, I noticed that 9950 is capping the pair upmove, so wouldn't like to enter a lon position until a clear break is confirmed , on the other hand a break of the 9900 support ( more likely) would call to 38.2% retacement on the move towards 9825.....this point of view is strenghthened by the forecast of BOE will not raise rates, so we'll have to wait for the minutes on june 20th , during this period dailies would pefer the technical outlook , and tha pair might breach the support.

Any comments ???!!

Good call. Hope you got into that. I had a short order at 1.9895 on the belief that the BoE would hold and flush out some of the bullishness on the pair that was lingering after all the speculation on the possilibility of a 50 bp hike before the April meeting. At the moment looks like its still moving lower, but I took profit at 1.9820 since this was a short-term setup for me to begin with. That 38.2% fib you called seems to be playing its roll and a further decline would have to mess with the even 1.98 which has some psychological significance and the rising trend starting off the May 21st low now 15 points below that.

Hi 4xis2ez,

I'm curious to know how my many pips are you attempting to capture on each cycle rotation?