em.. friday close 1.9947

if gbp/usd still have strong uptrend..

next resistance will be 20012 -20022
and test to around 20180..

after that i think, will happen big correction..

still open position sell 19931

and will do sell limit around 20012 - 20022

and wait again.. if break resistance 20012 , and i will do hedging

buy and target to 20100 - 20180

just qoute it from another broker analysis...

"

The GBP/USD broke the downtrend going back to November 2007 on speculation the Fed won’t rush to raise borrowing costs to curb inflation and on Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s comments that despite rising inflation now, “we will ensure it falls back to the 2 percent target.” Four BOE policy makers testifying with King said they considered raising rates this month after UK inflation reached a decade-high. There is strong resistance at the 2.00-handle, but the penetration of the downtrend implies higher rates. If the resistance at 2.00 is broken, the pair will rally to the 2.05 area. Our short GBP/USD stopped out and we lowered the stop for the EUR/USD. "

i just realize, that 3 july.. ECB is posibble going to rate hike..
and there is USA employment reports..predict will be bad...

this could make oil going up..
and lower USD...

becarefull guys.. with position long of USD

monday, if things go wrong, will do emergency hedging.. or CUT LOSS..
and wait for the situation..

"
http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=93396

Hi John

I've not posted here before, but have been following the comments on the Forum for a while now with interest.

I have also used the Market Matrix.

I see you are using Delta Points, and not Matrix, as Steve Copan has 11 on his intermediate (MC-1) charts.

Is this because you find Delta more accurate?

Also, are there any other Forums you know of which may like to discuss this method of trading in more depth?

I'd be interested to know if anyone else uses this method,alongside Elliot Wave.

Regards

Ian

On Monday we have some Uk events: Index of services, Monney Supply, Sterling Lending, Mortgage Approvals.
On net we can find some interesting (UK - GBP) infos:

(Reuters - "There's some interesting weak news out of this: service sector income weakest in a decade, profits falling and real household disposable falling. And household saving at just 1 pct does leave scope for a rebalancing. It's not a positive report at all.")
(Financial Times - "Overall, households’ finances appear to be in a more precarious state.")
(Reuters - "The services output revision is credible. Consumer spending is still strong and exaggerates the trend. But the Bank of England had been saying they had expected some downward revisions,..)
(Reuters - "Investment weak, also inventories. Household savings rate just 1.1 percent, lowest since 1959 -- with clear risks that spending will suffer in coming quarters as savings rise.")
(Reuters - "Household consumption looks to be driving the downward revision overall. So growth is now quite a long way below trend which is normally estimated at about 0.7 percent. In the short-term it's not a great result for sterling.")

On D1 gbpusd chart we can see that gbpusd is almost on top of his range. But test of 2.0 or a bit higher is possible (to 2.0060). Asian session on Monday is usually on the side of USD strenght.

On Thuesday we have PMI manufacturing UK event.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK



(Thomson Financial News - "The current economic slowdown has resulted in a changing balance of power in the pay bargaining environment. While employees continue to look for pay deals to match RPI inflation, employers are finding their ability to pay constrained.")

p.s.
On D1 chart we can see that eurousd is almost on top of his range.
So technically pulback is expecting.
I think this are good signs to wait on pullback on monday or tuesday.
A lot of this depend on USD. So potential asian sentiment to USD I hope, is on our side for now
in monday morning. But we have to be carrefull. In the case on monday 2.0 will be broken, than
we are probbably on the way to 2.0500

Later this week, we have to bee on long positions - I think

I'm short at 9944. A bit unsure of how much higher this will go as I expect a pop close to the 2 mark before a sharp reversal to 9820. Have GFK consumer confidence released at midnight Sunday UK time which should print bad, so look for a reversal there following on Monday morning. MACD divergence on 1 hr chart and stoch well overbought on 1 & 4 hrs.

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Hello JohnG_FX....BH-Eurofighter and the all....heres my chart and my thought....I'm expecting the consumer confidence to show a falling trend towards 34-35 points.....and GDP to follow suit....high Oil and a strong pound the falling house prices....I see the UK heading in the same direction as the US.....

Breeze

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__________________
"Warning"...."I dont use stop losses"...."I HEDGE"..."Caution"...follow at own risk...!

If history repeats itself, we may be entering into Trending part of the Market. For example last year July downward move took GBPJPY from 250 to 221 within a month and GBPUSD rallied to 2.06.

However I would like to present my strategy which uses OBV with Macd levels which so far able to cap long term reversal trends using daily timeframe. So currently it shows OIL has peaked out and ready to reverse this can also be confirm with today's USDCAD long side breakout article on home page, as we all know USDCAD is highly correlated with OIL. So in a nutshell we could see OIL reversal which leads to USD rally against other majors as well.

This is just my opinion and by no means suggestion and recommendation to anyone. Chart presented here..

Mo Syed

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Immediate resistance seen at 1.9951 followed by 2.0013 , while support seen at 1.9770 .

Analyst sentiment index is 83% bearish, 17% neutral and almost 0 bullish.
Almost all analysts thinks that gbpusd is capable to test 2.0 area now, but
no one thinks that gbpusd will go higher very soon (in the very near term in monday or tuesday).

I went short on Friday at 1.9910 on the basis that the hourly stochastic and macd showed bearish divergence which can indicate that the move is running out of steam. Am looking for a retracement to 1.9810 but may have to put up with a test of 2 first.

anyone still hold sell gbp ??

yup..me too already..closed sell position...
now open buy

Morning all.

Looks like the high was due today after all. A try for option barriers at 2.00 is still possible. if so will just add a further short.


No change in positions, short @ 9880 and 9947 targeting 9700 area into Thursday. ECB rate hike fully priced in so will get a pullback on EUR/GBP after the event. NFP probably will be bad. Cable up from Thursday/Friday heading above 2.00 posiible to 2.0200-2.0400

UK mortgage approvals just came in at a record low which will push EUR/GBP higher and put pressure on all GBP pairs.

Nymex sweet crude back above $142 this morning. it's only a matter of time now before $150, definately within the next week in my opinion.

__________________
John G

Hi JohnG_FX,

I am also short cable with a stop at 2.0005, as I believe there are a sufficient clutter of option barriers at the figure, which should, hopefully, prevent cable from ascending further. I also believe that, due to a weak fundamental backdrop for sterling, investors will be unwilling to keep buying.

However, I am struggling to see cable making any significant retrace if crude keeps climbing. If $150 a barrel was to be hit this week, then this would signify a sharp dollar sell-off across the board, taking cable up and beyond the 2.01 level. Any thoughts??

Regards
Paul

Hi Paul.

A lot of the equity sell off this last week has to do with quarter end book squaring. Dow currently @ 11,317, S&P @ 1,275.75 and oil coming off a $142.94 high.

Move up in Oil and move down in equities has been pretty rapid so a period of consolidation is due. $150 might not be for a couple of weeks but it's definately coming

Cable should go significantly beyond 2.00 in the next couple of weeks. but I am trading off my Delta counts and it has to come down before it can go up. It will probably be in 3 waves so after waves i & ii it wll be possible to put a target on the third, from where I will be taking spot longs. also will be trying to figure the next high (which will be an MTD high so the move down will be over a longer period) and looking to buy call options with strikes at those levels to act as mobile stops/hedge on future shorts.

I'm effectively a time based swing trader.

Edit : nice negative divergance on the 1hr chart, daily looking toppy could get a nice shooting star today. we will see

__________________
John G