Anyone trading EURGBP these days? It could be a good way to avoid the USD event risk on hand today. There's immediate support at the confluence of the 50 SMA and 100 SMA at 0.7914/18, but I think we could see price ultimately fall closer to trendline support.

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Hey djindyfx and arodriguez,

You guys have to like the volatility we have seen recently.

I had a very small short position down at 1.9850; and more or less ignored the building momentum in favor of exotic crosses.

However, I'm liking the potential activity we could get around 1.9450/350. I see you are looking at the same area djindyfx.

As I see it, we are still 75-100 points off a significant rising trendline (from 5/2006 or 3/2007 depending on how you look at it); so we have a buffer for volatility following the Fed decision.

If we have hawkish expectations but no hike, GBPUSD could move drop; but technicals still make for a strong probability that spot won't enter a new dominant trend.

Of course, if we get a hike, the pair will drop, it may stall a little at support, but ultimately it may just have the necessary selling pressure to get us below 1.94 and then 1.93.

These are the two scenarios I'm setting up for (leaving out a distinctly neutral outcome or bearish dovish overall as the risk/reward would be hard to arrange). Anyone have a different outlook on price action and how event risk will play in?

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Hi every one,

I've just joined ur forum and thought i'd say hello, only been trading just over a year so it's good to get some extra points of view, blew out my trading capital in my first 3 months of trading so learnt to be very conservative now, and using strict stop losses.

i'm a day trader by faults and had a few short trades during this bear trend, hoping to hold a longer position (been taking profits way too early) when/if the market turns at around 480, if not will test the waters again at 360ish.

Welcome to the forum

Well John.. I don't know what it is going to do but.. I have a pretty solid line on my Weekly chart in the 1.9336 area as support.. It is either going to bounce or break some where in that area.. and if I can see it.. All the Big Banks and Funds should be able to see it to. It is just a matter of finding the right coat tails to ride.

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Hi all,

I am seeing next support at 1.9400/50. In daylies I am getting indicators in oversold territory already, but no buying signal yet. 4H and 1H are giving buying signals but not momentum... It seems market wants to go to 1.94xx before bouncing... if no change in GBP rate tomorrow, this pair could be in a range for the rest of the week between current levels and 1.9650 or 1.97xx. what do you all think?

regards,

A.

It has visited the 1.9525-20 area 2x today. What are the chances of it breaking through today?

I'd say very good chances as it has just broke through it.Looks like it has just rebounded off of the break though.

I thought it might go on to 1.948 but seems to have lost steam???

I have no idea why my target date of August 15 is still a week away, but price has dropped to my target level. This may mean there's a scope for further weakness for GBP.

Nonetheless, I am trying the EW triangle count, and therefore I am preparing to close my short trade 9914 at 9455 today if it goes there, and switch to long. Will move to SL to Break Even as soon as I can.

GL everyone.

Price is on the TL taken from 14th May.....CMELLON, you see price breaking the TL?
M$M

Long waiting at 1.9455, SL 1.9435

See if I get it today?

If only based on EW, price should find support at around 9455. However, based on Delta count, the direction is still down until August 15. Therefore, further price weakness is possible as long as we are still before Aug 15. In Delta, time is more important than price target. Once the time is in, market has to turn, that's the concept of Delta.

I will just go a little long this time since Delta direction is still down. But if Aug 15 passes next week, I'll start looking to build long more. That is if 9455 is reached today. If not, I'll keep my short.

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CMellon, does your chart show the possibility of it breaking 9455 and going down to 9360? or will it need to bounce off 9455 and then go down to 9300? Aug 15 is a week away, so if we reach 9455 this week, then does your chart show the possibility of it reaching 9300s before aug 15? sorry for all these questions but i think as we reach the TP of delta, you could guide us to navigate our shorts and longs in this "unknown area."

The chart I have shows the triangle EW pattern, which is the commonly believed pattern by Ellioticians regarding GBP. However, since Delta point won't be due until Aug 15, it's possible to reach even lower since Delta direction is still down. If that happens, how would that fit into the EW pattern, I have no idea, I will leave this to the EW specialist. Aug 15 is usually has some standard deviation 1-2 days. I can't comfortably go long before Aug 15 is due, unless it's with tight SL and immediately move SL to break even. 9455 should offer some good support, hopefully.