Hi all, I've been going through these threads and feel there might be something that could be contributed to it. Btw, my name's Stallion,a.k.a Forexgreenland and I specialize on reviewing and previewing GBPUSD. Incidentally I made a trade call on some of the forums out there to short the cable 3 days ago, purely from a technical analysis perspective.
Here's an extract:

A total of 173 pips haulage was made in the last 72hrs after my intial call. Cable was dropping it like its hot...dropping pips after pips, after pips..




Yeah,batangas...cable and other currency pairs are behaving nicely this time, IF you know

where to look and HOW to take advantage of it. Like a Panther, each single move is an accumulation of years of trading experience in which the movement of the 'herd' is already known, to a considerable extent.Timing is everything when you strike.
This is the time for anyone to enter trading, AFTER the proper training. The time when it defies most usual expectations is during NOVEMBER and DECEMBER periods(end-of-year trading), where the big dogs(banks/institutional traders) are jostling for positions. That is when its prudent to take a break from trading.Lots of whipsaws and tearing of stops.

Hi JV,sorry gbpusd has already hit before I could reply...Yes, I used the original T1 and T2 for T2 and T3, SINCE 1.9436 became our first target point.
Thank you..

I personally think this is quite dangerous advice, considering the sharp change in market sentiment.

I think there is a strong chance of some retracement in the coming week, particularly with the PPI and CPI being released from the UK and the retail sales numbers from the US. Yet this retracement, assuming it comes, may only take place after spot drops to 1.88, which is a distinct possibility.

Also, I would not draw too much comfort, or base your trading decisions in such volatile markets, on the positive carry you are receiving. This benefit is tiny, given that your broker is most likely taking a spread on both the overnight GBP and USD depo rates used to calculate the daily swap points.

At this stage, you need a get-out plan, rather than a vague notion of holding until it reaches 2.0. It may well reach 2.0 again, perhaps in 1 month, 1 year or 10 years, who knows. But before this occurs, spot may drop to 1.88, 1.86 or 1.72. Will you still be comfortable holding on to your longs for dear life at these levels? If spot does start to retrace, at what levels will you look to start closing out your positions? If spot does start to drop on Monday, at what level will you close the position out and cut your losses?

Each day you need to look at the market afresh and think "if I was to enter a trade now, based on the information available, would I go long or short or stay out of the market?". This is a more prudent and sensible approach than being married to a losing trade.

Personally, I have taken a tiny speculative long position at 1.9217, with a S/L just below yesterday's low, initially targetting 120 pips. I think some unexpectedly bad US data or corporate news could be the trigger for a retracement or perhaps a delayed market reaction to the conflict in Georgia could spark a spike in oil, leading to a fall in the greenback and equities. Either way, I feel the severity of this move, which isn't based on any new economic news, is due some correction in the short-term.

i have sold G/U @ 1.9272 with stop 2.0152 and target 1.8518.

Attached Thumbnails

 

2.0194-1.9569=0.0625
1.9510-0.0625=1.8885(target point)

Hi Hina, nice call on the cable... There's a Head and Shoulders pattern on the GBPUSD Weekly

chart, which is giving us a minimum target of 1.8885.
Price might still get way down to your target of 1.8518 since it is a lil below the 60% BUY

WINDOW,technical analysiswise. Remember, since this trade is being taken off the weekly(higher term chart), it is logical that it would take more time to get fulfilled. Next week would unfold the mystery...Lets keep our fingers

crossed,shall we?

hi

i know i am a stupid trader but this above trade doesnt make much sense to me. the risk reward is not of much sense ( u gain 700 pips or u loose more than that? )

and apart from that one could loose a lot on carry as well.

I agree, it doesn't make a great deal of sense to me either. You are exposing yourself to an unnecessary amount of risk.

Why don't you move your S/L much lower, perhaps to a former support level? This way, if and when stop is hit, you can re-evaluate your view and, if appropriate, enter another short position at a much higher level.

On balance, I feel there is a far greater chance of 1.8518 being hit before we see 2.0152, but you still shouldn't expose yourself to this degree of risk. And the cost of carry will become hefty if spot goes back to near 2.0000 and you have to wait many months for your target to be reached.

hi all

i see more and more people saying that we will see 1.86 before 2+ for sure. does it mean, i am not being wise sitting with my 2+ longs? if 1.86 does happen near term, i am probably better off closing my 2+ longs now so that atleast most of tat loss will get recovered on my shorts if it goes to 1.86. i am in a total fix. wat time frame are people looking at for 1.86?

also do people think there will be action even before london opens tomorrow?

I would have pulled out of that trade a long time ago!
I don't like to lose on any trade, I try and keep a good track of winning trades sofar now from the last 65 trades I have lost 4 and they were unfortunately big losses.

the UK is all doom and gloom at the moment, whereas on the other side of the pond more and more positive news is happening.

Oil is also down to $115, I also think the pound will tumble some more, I have a target of 9120, then I will reasess (if that is how you spell reasess?)


wise words from Paul, you should take heed Upstrada to what he has written!

take what you can and give nothing back

Hi upadrasta,

Some of us believe it will go to 1.86 by Sept – Nov (and very unlikely to visit 2.0 by then). Right now I have a short position, but I still put a stop loss because I know that I can be wrong and nobody can tell the market what to do.

Your question is a very personal one, and hence it’s very difficult to answer. If you make decisions based on what others tell you to do, and it doesn’t happen that way, then you’ll be very disappointed and blame others.

Here’s something to consider, suppose you decide to believe opinions in this board that price won’t visit 2.0, and it will go to 1.86 by Sept / Nov, and you decide to close your long at 2.0 and take a huge hit to you account. And then you enter a short position at a certain price. Will you be willing to limit your loss this time, let’s say if price goes back up to a certain price level, you decide to close your short and take a double hit. If you don’t want to limit your short risk again, and price keeps going back up until 2.0, many people in this board will change their opinions and say price probably will go to 2.05 and never visit 1.92 again. Projection and opinion change very quickly based on how the market performs. Market just can not be told what to do.

My projection prior to Friday is that price will fall to probably 1.945, then come back to 2.0 next month, before falling to 1.86 by November. But after Friday, my projection changes and it can go to 1.86 by next week even or by September, and it won't visit 2.0 again for foreseeable future. My projection and others projection change very quickly based on market action. Projection is just a probability and it can be completely wrong.

hi cmellon

just to let you know i am only looking for more and more views and some advise and of course i wudnt indulge in a blame game.

i respect people's view but i wud blame myself for wat i do.

Lets see how the market pans out this week.

Cheers

Pair already has dropped more than 100 pips to 1.9108 over the weekend..

Hi - Upadrasta, Sounds like a glum posistion to be in, i hope it works out, presume you have a lot in the account or are not too heavily leaveraged or your account would be drained, i can appreciate not wanting to cut your losses now - it's gutting when you do that and it turns the other way. However you should look at the data and news coming out of the uk this week, there is a lot of it, and judging by uk conditions i doubt it'll be pretty. Much is placed (particularly on this forum) on the technical side of things, which is great, and everso useful for judging entry and exit points for trades, and the rules of these often state 'it can't go there' 'it'll have to retrace to point-x before it'll go to point-y etc....' however it does not seem to be a usual trading enviroment and sentiment can seem to turn very quickly. I would not like to say weather it'll go up down or sideways at the moment.

I think the best option it draw a line in the sand and say at what point your willing to exit this trade and stick to it. It won't just be a financial loss to keep going but an emotional on as well having to sit with it.

I hope you make a good decision on this, i feel for you. Good Luck.

I think GBP is a bit oversold after last week's action, and it should retrace somewhat this week. I see some resistance at 1.91 and I think it will go back up to 1.9360. After that, we will continue the bullish decline.

Once we drop below 1.90, my next target is 1.8550.

Anyone out there a believer?

nobody in this forum today?

Hi Upadrasta. How's it going? Have you decided how to manage your long?