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  #5266 (permalink)  
Old 08-27-2008, 08:02 PM
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Followed vince's lead and entered three lots at average of 8311. SL for all three is 8275 and TP is 8450.
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  #5267 (permalink)  
Old 08-27-2008, 08:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FX Newb View Post
hey

looks like we are all starting to believe a new direction is forming..

whats your TP techy? todays high?..

i think half for todays high and other half 590 area..hopefully we get a close above 300 will give me more confidence that this is a true up move.

good luck all!!

for now 1.8350 as have not had time to really study charts.... just scalping but will change if I think it has room to make it higher
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  #5268 (permalink)  
Old 08-27-2008, 08:08 PM
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Originally Posted by teckybloke View Post
for now 1.8350 as have not had time to really study charts.... just scalping but will change if I think it has room to make it higher
ok no worries...

still undecided over whether to let it run see what thursday brings..will asses it again @NY close...

good luck!!
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  #5269 (permalink)  
Old 08-27-2008, 10:47 PM
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Cmellon – just to let you know that although I have not posted I am still reading all your postings. Thanks for the job. I am still long (ouch) and waiting for the bounce. Oh where are you? Hahaha.

I am still trying to learn how to be profitable at scalping. If anyone has a video or recommendation on how to scalp and make good entries and exits, please let me know.

John_G I know you are still going long or out… anything new? What do you think of the following statement by Bloomberg regarding intervention? Could this be the reason for the quick decent, and lack of bounce? Many years ago I learn it is unprofitable to ignore Bloomberg (LOL)

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

U.S., Europe, Japan Devised Plan to Prop Up Dollar, Nikkei Says
By Timothy R. Homan
Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Finance officials from the U.S., Japan and Europe in mid-March drew up plans to strengthen the U.S. dollar following troubles at Bear Stearns Cos., Nikkei English News reported, citing unnamed sources.
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  #5270 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 12:12 AM
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Originally Posted by FX Newb View Post
ok no worries...

still undecided over whether to let it run see what thursday brings..will asses it again @NY close...

good luck!!
Hi newb

T/p hit at 1.9350 before I had a chance to look at chart again. I cant see anything in the charts yet that signals a bottom has formed. Will look again tomorrow and see if anything develops.

Have checked through several other currency pairs and the only possible thing that looks interesting is usd/chf. On the 4h we have head and sldr top with correct pattern on the stochastics so that may be worth watching tomorrow. If we break down through the neckline it may cause dollar weakness in the other pairs and start the correction we are looking out for in cable. Apart from that its just a case of wait and see and try to pick a few pips here and there on the shorter time frames.

What are you sensing at the moment?
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  #5271 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by teckybloke View Post
Hi newb

T/p hit at 1.9350 before I had a chance to look at chart again. I cant see anything in the charts yet that signals a bottom has formed. Will look again tomorrow and see if anything develops.

Have checked through several other currency pairs and the only possible thing that looks interesting is usd/chf. On the 4h we have head and sldr top with correct pattern on the stochastics so that may be worth watching tomorrow. If we break down through the neckline it may cause dollar weakness in the other pairs and start the correction we are looking out for in cable. Apart from that its just a case of wait and see and try to pick a few pips here and there on the shorter time frames.

What are you sensing at the moment?

well the 64k$ question lol..
as far as a new up leg is concerned..a close above 300 level has boosted that claim..but as you say there is no real confirmation as of yet...maybe tommorow will give us some firm direction..bottom is not confirmed yet..but very well could already be in.

just got back from pub..and closed trades..@ 352
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  #5272 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 01:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Flguy View Post
Cmellon – just to let you know that although I have not posted I am still reading all your postings. Thanks for the job. I am still long (ouch) and waiting for the bounce. Oh where are you? Hahaha.
I am still here. Been posting many times actually. Just took off some chart yesterday, don't want to post it too long.

I have nothing new to add. As I said before, we are going down to 1.77 or even lower. However, price target is not important for me. We will expect a sizable bounce only on mid September. By then, price can be 1.77 (it's good if it's exactly as I project), but it can be lower or higher too. But the main point is that a lower price will continue to be formed until mid Sept.

If you want to keep your long, you must endure the possibility of dropping to 1.77 or lower, and you must keep it until mid September. You can hedge it right now since it's still a long way to go.

There's a possible alternative that LTD 12 is due on ITD 8 instead of ITD 10. However, to see if this is the case, ITD 7 high level must be taken out. Currently I don't favor this scenario.

Last edited by cmellon; 08-28-2008 at 02:28 AM.
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  #5273 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 03:21 AM
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Smile

Hi CMellon. Re the hedge on g/u, do you mean i take a short position at the current price? I really appreciate your EW and delta counts and charts. Although they still mystify me on the details, i understand the big picture (hopefully). More power to you and may you continue to discern the runes.

PS. after ten minutes, price spiked up and decided to close my long positions when the pair reached average of 8355 and shorted three lots at these price points. Decided to follow your forecast that pound would go down further. TP for these lots at 8250.

Last edited by tacamonchi; 08-28-2008 at 04:00 AM.
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  #5274 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted by tacamonchi View Post
PS. after ten minutes, price spiked up and decided to close my long positions when the pair reached average of 8355 and shorted three lots at these price points. Decided to follow your forecast that pound would go down further. TP for these lots at 8250.
That price 8355 is not good to short though... too low... I now have a standing short at 8470... , but anyway

There's a possibility that LTD 12 comes in at ITD 8, although at the moment I am leaning towards LTD 12 coming in at ITD 10. Now we still are not 100% sure the position of ITD 8. ITD 8 could have been yesterday's low (8284), or it could have been even lower (perhaps today), but ITD 8 should be due anytime soon.

If yesterday was ITD 8, we are on the move to ITD 9 high, which should not pass ITD 7 high, and then after ITD 9, we will go to ITD 10.

This is where LTD 12 becomes important. If LTD 12 comes in at ITD 8, this means ITD 8 will be the lowest of low, and ITD 10 will be higher than ITD 8. However, if LTD 12 comes in at ITD 10 (currently I favor this), then ITD 10 will be lower than ITD 8. If LTD 12 comes in at ITD 10, mid September will be lowest of low.

So just to make sure that my forecast can be understood. It's slightly confusing perhaps to some people. What I am trying to say is that it's possible to get the lowest of low at ITD 8, and not ITD 10. ITD 10 is due in mid Sept. However, I favor the scenario where lowest of low happens at ITD 10.

Last edited by cmellon; 08-28-2008 at 07:53 AM.
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  #5275 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 02:28 PM
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usd is gaining strengt

seing what is happening in USD section today the usd likely to go up but i suggest you wait till the news hour but i believe the news will not move more than 50 pips analyst are saying it would buy but i suggest is through but i advice you trade GBP/USD.
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  #5276 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 02:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
That price 8355 is not good to short though... too low... I now have a standing short at 8470... , but anyway

There's a possibility that LTD 12 comes in at ITD 8, although at the moment I am leaning towards LTD 12 coming in at ITD 10. Now we still are not 100% sure the position of ITD 8. ITD 8 could have been yesterday's low (8284), or it could have been even lower (perhaps today), but ITD 8 should be due anytime soon.

If yesterday was ITD 8, we are on the move to ITD 9 high, which should not pass ITD 7 high, and then after ITD 9, we will go to ITD 10.

This is where LTD 12 becomes important. If LTD 12 comes in at ITD 8, this means ITD 8 will be the lowest of low, and ITD 10 will be higher than ITD 8. However, if LTD 12 comes in at ITD 10 (currently I favor this), then ITD 10 will be lower than ITD 8. If LTD 12 comes in at ITD 10, mid September will be lowest of low.

So just to make sure that my forecast can be understood. It's slightly confusing perhaps to some people. What I am trying to say is that it's possible to get the lowest of low at ITD 8, and not ITD 10. ITD 10 is due in mid Sept. However, I favor the scenario where lowest of low happens at ITD 10.
Please can any one help me out here?
what is all this
LTD LTD 12 ITD 8 about?
Elliot wave or what?
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  #5277 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 03:32 PM
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Wavecount please

Does any of you blokes have a wavecount on this?

Thanks.
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  #5278 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 03:48 PM
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@ Shola: are you saying most like is good to go short after hour news later today?

How ever your id sound familier maybe you're some1 i knw?

Hope to hear your favourable reply or anybodys reply for todays trade.

happy trade to all
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  #5279 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xsay View Post
Please can any one help me out here?
what is all this
LTD LTD 12 ITD 8 about?
Elliot wave or what?
Hi xsay,
LTD, MTD ITD relate to Delta counts of low and high points on a time grid of Lunar months cycles for ITD and MTD and a yearly grid for LTD. Please read
DailyFX Forum - Delta trading on Cable, but to have more workable approach one needs to do some more studies. If you search Delta Phenomenon on the internet, you shall find some leads, to the book by Welles Wilder and to market matrix. Delta approach is relatively simple with a few rules, it is however too much to explain it on the forum, and the material on the subject is quite available. On this forum there are few of us who use Delta and you are welcome to read the postings, but if you want to trade using delta I would encourage you to do some seriuos study of this subject, as one needs to gain confidence from your own counts, EW or Delta.
Hope it helps you a bit,
2be
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  #5280 (permalink)  
Old 08-28-2008, 05:07 PM
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Your last few posts have given some Delta information where you are not sure of the counts. That is troubling - but understandable - since the system is flawed. If you were following the Market Matrix, you would know exactly what the counts are - since there are no inversions. So the charts that I am following do give a clearer picture.


Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Just a caution to everyone, LTD 12 may be IN together with ITD 8, due to the possibility of 5 EW wave structure complete at ITD 8. If this is the case, ITD 8 / LTD 12 will be lowest of low, as we travel in higher time frame up to LTD 13.

However, it's also possible that LTD 12 due on the next ITD 10 in mid Sept, which means we will see yet lower price. The reason for this possibility? Previous two past LTD cycles have LTD 12 due on mid Sept.

Now is not the time to be aggressively shorting, especially without relatively tight Stop Loss as the potential of LTD 12 due at ITD 8 is very real.

xsay, this ITD LTD is called market matrix, it's just another tool like EW, but complicated to explain here. Even EW is complicated to explain unless we read the book and really learn it.

.
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