It looks like we could be seeing a major breakdown from GBPUSD. If you look at the beginning of the long-term bull trend from 2001; we have just come up on the 38.2% fib of that level.

In my book this was confirmed by the 1.83 swing low from a few days ago. When spot pushed below this level I added to my short position. Whether or not I stay with it depends on what kind of momentum we come of it and what the if the other dollar-based pairs can produce their own breakouts to add to the buying pressure.

Thoughts? Do you guys think this a dollar based break or a pound based break?

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

please don't follow my leads, no offence but these are the trades I want to trade wether they are right or wrong, I don't want anybody getting brassed off with me incase a trade goes the wrong way

just gone long with two positions both 50k

8263
8273

my target for these two is back to 8400...first of all we have to get out of the 8260/70area....


take what you can and give nothing back

IMO this is clearly a pound-based break: UK fundamentals are so bad compared against the US which has almost reached bottom while the UK is starting to sink with no bottom in sight. We all know that the pound is going down further but CMellon's and 2be's EW and delta counts give us an idea when to enter and exit, and for that I am grateful that they share what they know. May their tribe increase.

went long again with 50K at 8250

take what you can and give nothing back

Potential reversal point is the green area on weekly chart (1.79 / 1.80 ).

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Hi cgjedi,
What a great news, there are no invertions, I thought they can only happen occasionaly and on either side of the point 1 of a given cycle. W Wilder in the book observed that a double invertion happens about 15% at the most and a single 35% at the most. Looking at the ITD of the matrix count, there seems to be an aboudance of invertions. I hope it adds to the clarity of your charts. Steve Copan has done a great job in applying Delta and his Videos are great, but since he changed the number of points, I sometimes find it difficult to follow, so I stick with the original 12 on ITD which is MC1. I would not claim that my counts are perfect, I am just a learner, like many of us ,and have been at it for several years, but I do enjoy studying the markets.
There is a fine line between following and having a degree of "ownership" of a given strategy, or a part of it. Following others is good for blaming them for the losses, as they are more likely to be a substancial part of the follower's trading experience. When one has the sence of "ownership" achieved by studies and practice, one is more in charge of the given trading strategy, and IMHO is more likely to be profitable. Nothing wrong in looking at others, but it is far better to know the rationale for each trade's entry and exit which stands in accordance with a strategy worked out (and preferably written) by a trader, then just base the trades on the notion of following, which I am sure is not what you have tried to indicate.
It is great that the number of traders who post on this thread and are using Delta is increasing, and I am pleased to see you posting here. Hope that you will benifit from this thread and that your postings will benifit us too.
I wish you many good trades,
2be

This is a great observation, I got the poss reversal at 1.7972 based on a much lower TF, but such a confluence makes it a more likely target, or a zone to be reached. Thanks for posting it on the forum, I shall keep your chart in mind for the days/weeks ahead.
Best wishes,
2be

have gone long at 1.8278 with s/l 1.8225

My studies show bullish divergence and theres a hint of head and shldr bottom in the 15min chart. there is a steep downward neckline hence the slightly wider than usual s/l

From what I have seen over the last week or so this is currently the best indication of a bottom.....time will tell!

Anyone else thinking along same lines?

I hope your right, but i get the feeling everyones just bottom fishing, and only coming home with and old boot. i think personally 179.80 before a 150 pip rise. next wednesday'ish.

have taken profit on long as have to go out and cant watch charts. Will still be looking to establish longs on dips providing we stay above 1.8240

It is perfectly fine not to trade if one cannot see a definite direction on the relevant TFs, part of a succsesful trading is to know when not to trade. Sounds strange, but it is paramount to have a clear sense of direction, and every trader gets it in a different way. It is possible to be wrong and get profits, as it is possibly to be right and allow just a few points before the reversal te get hit for a greater loss. Majority of us have done it, and have learned a lesson, with the full tuition payment. Quality education often has got a price tug. This price tug is only surpassed by forgetting the learned lessons. In time like this I get into studying and reading some books, and keep an eye on the chart of some kind, but keep out of the market. Even if one gets only 1% of the acc a week, it does compound a lot, and majority of us do much, much better. Preserving the capital is an important part of growing the account.
Best wishes to all,
2be

Where this pair is heading before NY Close? Any guess?

only aprox 120 pips move today..so my guess is down

Possibly 1.8180/90?

Regards
-PE

im not currently trading ive done my bit for today..but yes i would say it has potential to drop that far..and once there, it is a big drop to any real support..