Originally Posted by FX Newb

hey there..
on my fxcm TS go to ..

add indicators
click on mva
go to parameters,type in number..8,20 etc
click on data source then click on high and add to platform.
then repeat and add low

seperate issue but look back in my posts to read high/low line to understand a little more..basically add a line on platfrom at highest candle point between midnight and 2am EST..also add a low line at lowest candle point during same timeframe...using this method these lines give you extra conviction in your trades throughout the day...a break above or below those lines can give you more confidence in entering trades..

On 5M chart...if you draw those lines on platform for todays trading between midnight-2am EST and also add the sma's..watch at 01.40 how the low 8 line crosses the 20sma..then 1.45 the 8 high line crosses the 20 confirming a down trend..can be 10pips...can be 100pips..all depends,however if you look at how the candles struggle to penetrate the low 8..you stand a greater chance of a bigger move.

wait for a candle to close above the 8 high line..on this down trend that occured at 3.05 EST

so you should have entered at 1.8325...1.40 am EST
and you should have closed at any point on the 3.10am EST candle.= 50 pips

seen as the 3.05 candle finished above 8 high line get ready to go long on the same candle that you close your short. 3.10am.....

beauty of this is that as i said before regardles of what is going on..the sma is guiding you..it is telling you what to do and when...
hope that helps..this works best when price is not going sideways..


good luck

Originally Posted by cmellon

Hi PE,

I keep analyzing and reanalyzing right now, and I will post stuff as I find new things.

To tell you honestly, I am a little bit torn with the situation right now, because both scenarios are possible. In fact, at the moment, I am seriously considering LTD 12 joining ITD 8 because of the MTD situation.

1. Why LTD 12 joins ITD 8.

This is possible if you look at the MTD.

If you see the attached chart (I use Matrix cycle upgrade here), you can see that if ITD 6 joins MTD 3, it's unlikely that MTD 4 joins ITD 7, because you see MTD 4 range in the chart is from ITD 9, ITD 10, and ITD 11 (i.e. MTD 4 can join either ITD 9 or 10 or 11). But it's unlikely that MTD 4 joins ITD 7, because that would be too early.

It's more likely then that MTD 3 joins ITD 8 instead (ITD 8 is still within the range of MTD 3). If MTD 3 joins ITD 8, then where will MTD 4 join? As you can see in the chart, MTD 4 range is ITD 9, 10, and 11. We could say that MTD 4 is due on ITD 9. But then when will MTD 5 due if this is the case?

MTD 5 range is from ITD 11, 1, and 2. MTD 5 is unlikely to be due on ITD 10, as that would be too early. LTD 12 however has to be due at the latest at ITD 10. You can see the range of LTD 12 in the chart there.

Therefore, using this analysis, you can only conclude the following:
MTD 3 is due on ITD 8
MTD 4 is due possibly on ITD 11
LTD 12 is due on ITD 8

(see second chart for a visual view of this analysis)

2. Why LTD 12 joins ITD 10.

The support for this view is because in the past two LTD cycles, LTD 12 was due on time on mid September (the last one was due on Sept 10, and the one before last was due on Sept 16).

But again for this to take place, MTD 3 needs to join ITD 8, MTD 4 needs to join ITD 9, and MTD 5 needs to join ITD 10, and MTD 5 in this case will then arrive too early and a bit unlikely.

In summary, here's what I think:

1. If you want to be absolutely safe having a long position for a mid - long term (if you are trading in MTD and LTD time frame, and not a short ITD time frame), wait until mid September for ITD 10. The risk is that price may already increase quite a lot by that time if LTD 12 joins ITD 8, and therefore you lose the opportunity to earn pips.

But the good thing about waiting until ITD 10 in mid Sept is that you avoid the risk below:
I read many people project 7900 as possible support because of the 61.8% fib. Although this is correct, I think 7700 is also possible because it's at the weekly trend line channel support, and also because it's 34 cents lower than the Nov high (34 is a fib number). There is a risk going long too early thinking that 7900 is the bottom (and 7900 could in fact be ITD 8), and as it rises up decently to ITD 9 and people thinking it's reversal time, it's being dumped once more very quickly to ITD 10 at around 7700

2. If price drops non stop to sub 1.8 without any decent bounce to ITD 9, let's say by the end of first week of September, I think there's a good chance that LTD 12 will join ITD 8 (and MTD 3).

Happy Trading

Originally Posted by pubber

FX NewB,

On a post of yours a few days ago you stated NOT to enter a position between 12 and 2am EST (5-7am BST), a high and a low line must be drawn between these times and not to trade until 7am BST. So this would mean shorting at 8308 at 7.10am BST, where both 8's have crossed the 20.
Just a question, as I have been testing this the last few days and seems good.

Cheers

B

Originally Posted by FX Newb

hi there..yes very true i did say that...but it is a seperate trade...

a trade with the sma's and a trade with high/low line..

i would not cancel the sma trade until i get the reversal signal..
then when price pushes through the low line i add again but will stop this trade if any folowing candle finishes above the one i traded on..however this might happen and i close my high/low trade but the sma still is alive..

if you are testing the high low trade then yes stick with what i said in previous posts..if you use sma to trade follow those rules i posted other day..or trade the two like i do..just follow the rules per method and you want go far wrong.

sorry to have confused i should have been more clear in what i was doing..hope it clears it up alittle ...

Originally Posted by FX Newb

hi there..yes very true i did say that...but it is a seperate trade...

a trade with the sma's and a trade with high/low line..

i would not cancel the sma trade until i get the reversal signal..
then when price pushes through the low line i add again but will stop this trade if any folowing candle finishes above the one i traded on..however this might happen and i close my high/low trade but the sma still is alive..

if you are testing the high low trade then yes stick with what i said in previous posts..if you use sma to trade follow those rules i posted other day..or trade the two like i do..just follow the rules per method and you want go far wrong.

sorry to have confused i should have been more clear in what i was doing..hope it clears it up alittle ...

Originally Posted by pipsempire

Newb, in SMA method where is your SL?

-PE

Originally Posted by pipsempire

Hi Cmellon,

I must apperciate the efforts you are putting to help us here. I am leaning towards the first possibiltiy (ITD 8 joining the LTD12) as there are good chances that pair will drop to 1.80 or so as it alread cleared the significant technical levels. We might see a significant bounce from 1.79/80 area.

Regards
-PE

Originally Posted by FX Newb

hi


when i trade on a breakout short or long on sma's..SL has to be a close of candle above or below the candle initialy traded. same principal as high/low lines.

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hi cmellon

just curious to know. have u been trading on gbpusd since u closed ur longs? given that it mite go to 1.77s can u think of any good entry points for shorting?

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hi cmellon

after a drain of 80% capital, i am finding it difficult to enter the market. It seems like i always end up being on the wrong side.

i decided to study a bit more before entering any trade.

can you tell me how exactly is scalping done? i mean do you look at the sma crossovers. and also how does one decide where to cut while scalping? whether stop loss or take profit.

Originally Posted by cmellon

As 1.81 is clearly broken, we can now focus on the next possible end of wave 5 region.

Looking at my chart, the typical End Of Wave (EOW) 5 band is indicated by blue rectangular (around 1.778 level, this is 0.618 fib of Wave 1-3, projected from wave 4), the minimum EOW 5 band is indicated by yellow rectangular (already broken), and maximum EOW 5 band is indicated by pink rectangular.

Dynamic Time Projection to see possible reversal date for end of Wave 5 indicates Sept 1, Sept 5, Sept 15, Sept 16, and Sept 17 as likely dates.

In terms of Delta count, we may see 1.77 at ITD 8. This is probably also LTD 12. At the least, we will see some retracement to ITD 9 here. ITD 10 would then be higher than ITD 8, or if 1.77 is ever broken, then we could go to the pink rectangular zone for ITD 10, which then would be the LTD 12.

Currently I think we probably could see 1.77 at ITD 8 (probably on Sept 5), and this could also be LTD 12, and where I would look to get long.

P.S. BOE rate decision on Sept 4 (ITD 8 time frame), and BOE statement on Sept 17 (ITD 10 time frame).

Originally Posted by upadrasta

hi cmellon
...
can you tell me how exactly is scalping done? i mean do you look at the sma crossovers. and also how does one decide where to cut while scalping? whether stop loss or take profit.