Hello,

First of all I understand this is a place where discussions on the market trends take place. But, I have a rather simple question on forecasting methods for the exchange rates of currency pairs. I would like to know the most basic one-step-ahead method that is used to predict an exchange rate based on the estimation of changes in past few days. Please do let me know any information that could be available regarding this query.

Thank you.

Tapan.

If their were an easy answer to this question, we would all be millionaires.

The basics are, you have two fields of analysis you can choose from: fundamental and technicals. Both have their strong proponents and detractors. What's more, both offer you probabilities - not absolutes.

I find that fundamental analysis is better suited for the long-term when you are considering direction; but best for gauging volatility in the very short-term (when you know event risk is scheduled). Technical analysis is easier for most to use when determining direction and trade setups.

Beyond that, there is a world of trading ideas and strategies to explore. My recommendation is to learn as much as possible and decide what works for you.

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

Hey Waldo

I think we can take a lesson from the Japanease when it come to a falling economy and interests. To answer your question on the rate cut percentage, I would say 25. What bothers me is all the money that the fed. has dumped into the financial district starting in mid 2007 and the banks are still not willing to lend. That tells me that banks which are in trouble need more money before they will be willing to lend, even overnight to themselves. When a nations economy is based on you and I constantly spending money is a nightmarish thought. Since our condition is so dire the fed. has no choice but to pull out the stops. Thank God oil has come down.

Hi,

I am new to currency trading and have 3 questions at this time. 1. Which RSI span to you prefer 70/30 or 80/20 and why? 2. Which time scale chart do you prefer when establishing short term or daily trades? 3. When establishing a longer term trade which time scale chart should I concentrate on?

At this time I am using one hour, four hour and daily charts. Also I am utilizing 20 & 50 M.A. bands and 14 day RSI. to locate possible trades. I also pay attention to the daily news and risk events.

Any instruction is needed because I want to become more consistent before moving from my micro account to a standard account. THANK YOU!

hi to every one in here,

i need some advice plzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, i dont know what to do now, i opened some deals & i think i'm stuck in there, shall i close some of them or all or just wait .

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Hi Waldo,
I think that the Fed will opt for a 25-50bp cut so they will have some more room to maneuver later on if needed. As for a long-term outlook, I agree that once this rate-cutting cycle is done with, the dollar will benefit from the up-cycle. The bigger question is, when will this cycle come into play. It is hard to say when exactly we can see this coming, but one thing for sure is that we will need to see the Fed pull out the trillions of dollars that they have been dumping into the market, and will also need to see some sort of stabilization in the housing and credit market. As of now, it seems that this crisis is far from over as house prices continue to fall further while lending practices remain far from normal despite the extraordinary efforts taken on by policy makers. Moreover, the one thing that I will be keeping a close eye on will be on how low the Fed will go. The more they cut leaves them with more to raise in the long-run, so judging by these circumstances, I would have to say that there are some things that supports the argument for a long-term bullish outlook for the dollar. Hope this helps to give you another perspective on things.

Hi Waldo,

That's a good point. Let me know if you find any relevant indices and I may be able to run these studies on them.

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David Rodriguez is the author of Forex Trading Signals and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.

hi guys,

i was looking at the dailyfx plus site. can anyone kindly explain the difference between the following strategies

range1 and range2, breakout1 and breakout2, momentum1 and momentum2

These are basic overviews of the six trading strategies on the signals pages:

Breakout 1 – A price based strategy that looks to take advantage of quick price movements after a period of reduced volatility.

Breakout 2 – An SSI based strategy that looks to take advantage of sudden market breakouts and scales out as positions become profitable.



Momentum 1 – A strategy that looks for long term trends by identifying extreme absolute levels of market sentiment.

Momentum 2 – An SSI based strategy that looks for shifts in market sentiment to identify medium term trends.



Range 1 – A price based ranging strategy that looks for reversals once prices have moved sufficiently far from their recent means.

Range 2 – A strategy that combines price and SSI levels to identify range environments in times of uncertain market sentiment.

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David Rodriguez is the author of Forex Trading Signals and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.

Hello everyone.

I'm not a very wealthy person and my entire net worth is about $43,000 USD. My monthly income fluctuates and I decided to see if the currency market could supplement my income, especially after having a child.

I was up $25,000 or so through World Currency Options before losing it all and then some by subscribing to John Crooks' Emerging Market FX service when the US dollar corrected during the past week.

I guess I'm wondering from both an investment and personal finance perspective, if you think the US dollar is headed for utter disaster & doom as many pundits predict?

Most of my expenses are unfortunately in euros so this will affect my lifestyle as well as my investment decisions going forward.

I would appreciate your thoughts.

First post. I have a question. I recently downloaded Market Scope on a micro account. I am looking for help applying Fibonacci levels to the chart. By the way, am I asking this question on the correct thread? Thanks for any help.

Iwould also like to know how to put charts on the forum. I've read back in this forum for information to help with trading since i am new at forex, and I see people putting charts in with there messages with there ideas.

In just three short years between the peak of the stock market boom in 1929 and the bottom in 1932, it felt like the entire world was falling apart. The financial bubble burst. Giant companies failed. America lost 13 million jobs as unemployment surged to 25 percent.Industry cut its production nearly in half,and home construction plunged by more than four-fifths. Over 5,000banks failed. And yet, despite it all, there was one all-important investment vehicle that not only survived, but actually thrived: The dollar. But why? Because of deflation and fear. Thanks to deflation, prices fell on virtually everything — commodities, farm land, homes, automobiles, consumer goods, even labor. And because of fear, investors shunned risk and sought the safety of cash in greenbacks. Result: The dollar's purchasing power and value surged. This is what is happening today and is the reason for the dollars strength. But the question is, when will the dollars strength come to an end? it has been getting weaker sinse 2002 and will continue to do so in the long term but how much longer will this rally last?

Fundamentally speaking it seems strange that as the US equities increase in value the Euro increases in strenght against the dollar. Why does this often happen (excepting a strange day last week.
Thanks for anyones insight.
Miniorf

In order to input charts you need to save the image and upload it by clicking on the manage attachments button below the text box, located in the additional options section. The best way is to do a screen shot of your graph and paste it into a program like paint or Irfanview and then save it as a jpeg.

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John Rivera is the author of Market Brief, Top FX Headlines, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com.