Ah! The 'Guts' Report ...

Not sure about the EURUSD traders being heavily long though David (unless your refering to the $ and not the Euro) ... "EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.00 as nearly 67% of traders are short." ... + they are less long ... "In detail, long positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 15.6% weaker since last week"

EURUSD 1.36904 -2.02 33% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.02330 -1.57 39% Bullish
USDJPY 115.423 1.90 65% Bearish
USDCHF 1.20072 2.97 75% Bearish
USDCAD 1.05139 4.13 81% Bearish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.02 as nearly 67% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.02 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 17.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 22.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.3% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.57 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 20.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% higher than yesterday and 27.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.0% stronger than yesterday and 26.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

Thanks Antonio. Looks like USDCAD is the shocker although I'd be hesitant shorting the USD from the current levels. I'd much perfer to wait for a full blown capitulation of USD longs and roll in long USD's lower down. This, however, is only likely to happen when I'm fast asleep and dreaming ...

EURUSD 1.37787 -2.22 31% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.02961 -1.35 43% Bullish
USDJPY 113.877 2.29 70% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18973 3.37 77% Bearish
USDCAD 1.05098 4.20 81% Bearish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.22 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.02 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.3% lower than yesterday and 24.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 24.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.1% weaker than yesterday and 8.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 8.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.2% higher than yesterday and 28.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.9% stronger than yesterday and 22.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.29 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.92 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 31.5% higher than yesterday and 14.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.3% higher than yesterday and 22.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 24.3% stronger than yesterday and 17.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.37 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.46 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.4% higher than yesterday and 40.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.2% lower than yesterday and 33.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.3% stronger than yesterday and 11.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.20 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.12 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 10.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 1.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.0% stronger than yesterday and 4.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Ah, that was a careless typo. Sorry about that Black.day, they are indeed heavily short.

Man, the SSI has proven remarkably accurate recently. Just taking a look at the performance of our internal SSI-based managed funds, you'll see that the Sentiment fund is up nearly 20 percent year to date.

All of that which I wrote above turned out almost exactly to plan, with the exception of a potential USDJPY bounce before very sharp declines.

We saw little changes on the SSI, but I thought I'd point out the 'guts' for both the EURUSD and USDJPY

The ratio and positioning definitely remain bullish the EURUSD, though it's interesting to note that long positions are significantly higher on the day. This suggests that we could see the pair stutter and fall ahead of setting new heights. Though as I mention in the EURUSD currency room, I think it's only a matter of being patient on the Euro; we'll more likely see 1.4000 than 1.3700 through short term trade.

This is again another interesting development. The very long ratio of 2.14 suggests that risks really remain to the downside on the USDJPY, but a surge in shorts likewise hint at the fact that short term gains are the more likely scenario. I personally would look to sell rallies on this pair and will keep you posted on my thoughts in the USDJPY room.

EURUSD - 69% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.21). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 24.5%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 52% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -1.10). However, since last week, retail has been buying the GBPUSD (long positions are up by 7.9%). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 68% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 2.11). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 16.3%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 78% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 3.61). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCHF (short positions are up by 38.6%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 80% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 3.95). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 5.1%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

Hey Dave- appreciate the kudo's been away for few days.

FXCM SSI: USDCHF Shorts Grow By 32 Percent

Tuesday, 11 September 2007 09:11:58 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.05 as nearly 67% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.17 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.6% higher than yesterday and 24.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 25.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 1.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<<Longs short term following trend but not lacking conviction building pos'n as 24% weaker says Get Long. Shorts short term trying to call top but adding to pos'ns says Get Long.>>


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.36 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.2% higher than yesterday and 3.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 14.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.4% stronger than yesterday and 14.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<<Longs pilining on short term but not holding conviction. Shorts no conviction short term and longer term no conviction either, almost sounds choppy longer term , here however bias is towards Cable strength short term but not much fuel in the covering fire from my read.>>


USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.10 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.70 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 17.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 24.1% higher than yesterday and 15.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.0% stronger than yesterday and 23.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

<< Longs building positions longer term, and shorts are as well. That is a tug of war and says choppy here. Hey let me look at my chart. Sideways after the fall from consolidation. Hard to be bullish $ against yen with that chart. Another down leg??>> Looking elsewhere..

Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

EURUSD 1.38240 -2.33 30% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03064 -1.26 44% Bullish
USDJPY 113.816 2.05 67% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18597 3.31 77% Bearish
USDCAD 1.04401 4.55 82% Bearish

EURUSD - 70% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.33). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 30.4%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 56% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -1.26). However, since last week, retail has been buying the GBPUSD (long positions are up by 7.9%). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 67% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 2.05). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 15.3%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 77% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 3.31). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCHF (short positions are up by 12.5%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 82% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 4.55). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCAD (long positions are up by 7.2%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCAD has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.38278 -2.83 26% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03091 -1.37 42% Bullish
USDJPY 114.294 1.97 66% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18913 3.45 78% Bearish
USDCAD 1.04132 5.03 83% Bearish

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.83 as nearly 74% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.17 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.9% lower than yesterday and 38.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.5% higher than yesterday and 40.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.2% stronger than yesterday and 3.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

Source: FXCM Dealing desk

Thanks Antonio. I see that bulls are very keen on the USD via CAD and CHF. I've seen some TA that suggests 111.~ on USDJPY which looks plausible given these figures. Do you publish EURJPY figures too?

EURUSD 1.38866 -2.93 25% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03037 -1.09 48% Bullish
USDJPY 114.240 1.74 63% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18462 3.61 78% Bearish
USDCAD 1.03854 4.73 83% Bearish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.93 as nearly 75% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.98 as 75% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.8% higher than yesterday and 22.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 35.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 8.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.36 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.5% higher than yesterday and 3.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 16.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 9.3% stronger than yesterday and 15.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.74 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.70 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 10.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 41.8% higher than yesterday and 31.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 24.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.61 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.10 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.8% higher than yesterday and 11.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.8% higher than yesterday and 0.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.7% stronger than yesterday and 1.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.73 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.09 as 84% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 19.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.5% higher than yesterday and 6.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 20.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at negative 2.38 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 23.5%). Also, open interest is 1.1% stronger than yesterday and 12.1% above its monthly average. In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days.

Attached Images

 

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.39088 -2.93 25% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03043 -1.11 47% Bullish
USDJPY 114.141 1.80 64% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18430 3.60 78% Bearish
USDCAD 1.03642 4.90 83% Bearish


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.37 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.98 as 75% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.2% higher than yesterday and 4.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.2% lower than yesterday and 22.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 10.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.36 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.6% higher than yesterday and 10.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 16.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.6% stronger than yesterday and 18.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.66 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.70 as 73% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 15.9% lower than yesterday and 2.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 36.8% higher than yesterday and 27.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 17.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.81 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.10 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 18.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 47.0% higher than yesterday and 18.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.8% stronger than yesterday and 0.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.02 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.05 as 83% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 27.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 4.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 24.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk


For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.