Thanks guys. I expect a flip to long EURUSD will come soon enough on a break of 1.42

FXCM Dealing Desk Positioning @ 9/19/2007 10:56:59 AM

EURUSD - 71% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.44). However, since last week, retail has been buying the EURUSD (long positions are up by 10.0%). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 54% of retail traders are long GBPUSD (long to short ratio is 1.20). However, since last week, retail has been selling the GBPUSD (short positions are up by 0.6%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 61% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.56). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 11.4%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 76% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 3.12). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 35.2%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 82% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 4.70). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCAD (long positions are up by 11.7%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCAD has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1.

Attached Images

 

EURUSD - 74% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.82). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 4.9%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 52% of retail traders are long GBPUSD (long to short ratio is 1.07). However, since last week, retail has been selling the GBPUSD (short positions are up by 4.4%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 64% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.75). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 16.9%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 76% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 3.20). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 45.6%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 84% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 5.38). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 8.3%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

FXCM SSI: USDCAD Longs Taken Off Despite Weak Canadian Data
Friday, 21 September 2007 12:35:08 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.48 as nearly 71% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.89 as 74% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.1% higher than yesterday and 3.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 3.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 9.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<< longs piling in now 15% and 3% up; shorts trying to but not having much success. This tells me that we are getting closer to the top.>> Still bias is up until the short positions are lower to a larger degree.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.2% higher than yesterday and 28.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.5% stronger than yesterday and 11.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

<<Longs not feelin' it. Shorts piling it says get long cable, sterling, pound, whatever you want to call it and Northern Rock, who , its about the greenback puking yello. Get long cable!!!>> Was that clear enough ?




USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.51 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.56 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 13.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.8% higher than yesterday and 86.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 18.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

<<Longs building positions 13% will slow the ascent. Shorts are weak short term and are piling on loaded to the gils longer out 86%. Based on this you dont want to be short $/Jpy. My system and this tells me to be long. 115.7 is big then 116.61 but outlying target 117.87/118.06. Personally 118.06 will be extremely hard to overcome.>>

Euchre

Eur$ Bullish albeit less based on SSI , chart says dont fight it.
gbp$ bullish for 2.0238/2.0261 366 is the outlyier.
$/jpy bullish for see above

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

EURUSD 1.40771 -2.52 28% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.02016 -1.09 48% Bullish
USDJPY 115.533 1.49 60% Bearish
USDCHF 1.17292 2.48 71% Bearish
USDCAD 1.00041 4.82 83% Bearish

EURUSD - 72% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.53). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 6.6%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 52% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -1.09). . Last week, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were longMoreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling GBPUSD (short positions are up by 36.4%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the GBPUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 60% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.49). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 13.0%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 71% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 2.48). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 44.6%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 83% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 4.82). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 8.3%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.



Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Judging from the COT data, the dollar may still have some downside potential. Turns occur when commercials (blue line) are extremely long and when speculators (red line) are extremely short. Also, turns are usually accompanied by very high levels of open interest). I would rather see open interest closer to the record of 47619 set in July (for the dollar index) before turning bullish. Markets can remain extreme and trend for a long time. While I do believe in approaching the market in a contrarian manner....I do not beleive in acting contrarian simply to act contrarian. I must have a good reason, and at this point I do not have a reason.

Attached Images

 

Jamie- Good stuff. Wondering why dailyfx+ doesn't have SSI out for today?
Of course the Commercials take some time to turn as they have / build large positions and from Friday
<< Longs getting more long 16% rise and 4%. Shorts however haven't retired yet and thrown in the towel. Telling me the top isn't quite there. Frankly ADX trending indicator rising nicely has me seeing buy pb for now , though intraday rather weak.>>

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.51 as nearly 72% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.89 as 74% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.4% higher than yesterday and 4.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 6.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.2% stronger than yesterday and 11.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<<Cable Longs no belief and Shorts piling on saying path of least resistance is up.>> Today 6 hr gave nice inverted hammer/shooting star,
For now 2.0238 will be tough close on the daily. >>

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 21.8% higher than yesterday and 36.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.9% stronger than yesterday and 12.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

EURUSD - 74% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.78). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 6.3%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 54% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -1.16). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling GBPUSD (short positions are up by 8.2%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the GBPUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 62% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.67). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 17.4%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 74% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 2.91). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 21.1%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 83% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 4.85). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 8.3%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

Antonio- Please provide the guts so we can dissect. dailyfx+ still showing Friday.

Thx

Euchre

Looks like they're up, Euchre.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.80 as nearly 74% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.74 as 73% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 13.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 7.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.



GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 8.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 11.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.



USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.47 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 42.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% stronger than yesterday and 18.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.



USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.91 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.59 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 21.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.7% lower than yesterday and 17.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 9.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.



USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.88 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.05 as 83% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 5.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 10.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 9.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.



Looking forward to what you have to say.

[quote=David Rodriguez;136284]Looks like they're up, Euchre.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.80 as nearly 74% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.74 as 73% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 13.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 7.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<< Wow -2.8 74% short on the (skin) headline, says bias still higher. Below the surface Longs losing interest? 2% lower and 13% weaker. Shorts sidelined also neglible .5% higher yet longer out trying to call the top 7.6% higher. This tells me that bias should remain to buy Euro's. I am looking for the guts to flip long and the shorts to throw in the towel and that will tell me when the corrective move comes off this thrust higher. Not seeing it in the SSI just yet.>>

My take on the sentiment, sure noticing the Eur/$ and Cable/$ threads heating up here in dailyfx with reasons why $ s/b lower or reasons why Euro should be lower or higher, etc. This is telling me the emotions are getting mixed in with the technicals. Those short Euro are "arguing" why Euro has to be lower. Those Long <<fill in the blanks>> "arguing" why X has to be higher or lower in the case of $/Yen. Either way, as the threads heat up so does the anxiety, however this market can trend a lot longer than one would expect and right now I am not seeing signs of any kind of reversal in Euro just yet.


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.6% higher than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 8.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 11.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<<Longs, trying to slowly get on board 2.6% higher not much conviction but not so confident as 2.7% weaker says I'll go long but not hold it very "long". Shorts 4.4% higher says I see a top and 8% higher says yes we do to.
Now I peeked at Friday's Cable stat

Short positions are 21.8% higher than yesterday and 36.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.9% stronger than yesterday and 12.3% below its monthly average.

and 4% higher on top of 21% friday says they are trying to sell the top tick. With 8% today on top of 36% friday also says "yeah Northern Rock, housing house of cards CPI down, Cable has to move lower." These are thoughts that I invision retail Cable shorts are arguing. This doesnt tell me Cable is done moving higher. >>

My take on the technicals... 2.0366 is MONSTER line in the sand. I can't stress enough. And as I said earlier 2.0239 is huge daily close that isnt there quite yet. As the day comes to a close, Cable daily candle is an ugly inverted hammer shooting star not bullish for sure. The higher swing off 9880 is encouraging. 2.0154 support 2.0239 is resistance .

Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.79 as nearly 74% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.90 as 74% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 25.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 7.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 9.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.12 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 0.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 7.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.6% stronger than yesterday and 11.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.72 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.47 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.5% higher than yesterday and 20.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 39.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 19.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.94 as nearly 75% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.59 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 22.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.9% lower than yesterday and 17.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.0% stronger than yesterday and 9.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.64 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.79 as 83% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.0% higher than yesterday and 8.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 8.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

FXCM SSI: USDJPY Longs Building On Growing Open Interest
Tuesday, 25 September 2007 09:23:08 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.72 as nearly 73% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.90 as 74% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.8% higher than yesterday and 30.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 9.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 12.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<<Starting to see signs of cracking?. Longs piling in 8% higher and 31%, however shorts also testing waters, telling me Euro bearish, however with shorts also higher 1.3% marginal and 9% since last week, negates it. In this case I would have to revert to the technicals. This tells me Euro bullish. Trend following????>>



GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.13 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 4.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 4.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.2% stronger than yesterday and 10.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<<Longs getting longer 10% bump and slight 4.5% since last week. Shorts skittish only .7% and 4.4% stronger since last week. This tells me conflicting bias , as both guts are stronger. Based on % I'd be leaning toward Cable bearish. Based on the daily chart it to had ugly reversal yesterday.
FWIW- My chart indicating that today is a key day for the close. 2.0153 is important value on where we close. >>

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.76 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.47 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.0% higher than yesterday and 22.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.6% lower than yesterday and 37.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.5% stronger than yesterday and 19.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

<<Longs are confident rising again 13% and 22 %. Shorts losing patience short term 5.6% lower but still sitting on sizable 38% stronger since last week (didnt this flip when Jamie posted 118 $/jpy correction is under way). Hmm contrarian take??
Above tells me conflicting as well, first part says sell $/jpy but with 38% positioning and growing on short side, where is the path of least resistance?
Lower and let those on board benefit??


Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

EURUSD - 74% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.84). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 9.4%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 52% of retail traders are long GBPUSD (long to short ratio is 1.09). . Last week, the ratio was at -1.03 as 51% of open positions were shortMoreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying GBPUSD (long positions are up by 10.2%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the GBPUSD has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 66% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.92). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDJPY (long positions are up by 25.3%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 75% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 2.96). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 23.8%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 83% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 5.05). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 8.3%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.