Euchre, where are you? It's time to tear the last report apart and unleash the devil within

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)

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Thanks Black- wasn't sure anyone was reading my SSI missive of late...

SSI: EURUSD long positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday on profit taking
Thursday, 04 October 2007 17:18:04 GMT
Written by Antonio Sousa, Currency Analyst

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.36 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.20 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 5.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 2.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 7.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<<Nothing real sizable here as longs lower ST and slightly stronger longer out up5%. Shorts still trying to top tick it but losing interest longer out . >>
Technically Strong trending mkts like Euro certainly can stay that way for awhile and if longs are long they are on winning side. Dont fight this trend yet, it ain't over.


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 21.8% higher than yesterday and 12.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 28.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.4% stronger than yesterday and 7.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<<Longs are just piling on 22% bump ST and 13% longer out. Shorts slightly up but certainly not the majority , however they are stronger longer out 29% bump. If it weren't for the 29% bump in shorts I'd say short it as the long are up, so this muddies the water a bit. Defering to the chart on the daily and my system says Long while above 266/217 area.>>

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.25 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 9.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 28.7% higher than yesterday and 69.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.9% stronger than yesterday and 24.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

<<Longs no interest 7% drop but 10% stronger since last week. Shorts are getting even more short 29% bump ST and 70% stronger since last week. Wow have to be long $/jpy here with short #'s growing even more short. This is contrary to what the SSI writer is forecasting...>>

Euchre


Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.41361 -2.42 29% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.04214 -1.90 35% Bullish
USDJPY 116.890 1.29 56% Bearish
USDCHF 1.17671 2.30 70% Bearish
USDCAD 0.98182 6.26 86% Bearish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.42 as nearly 71% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.53 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 26.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 13.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.2% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.89 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.74 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 4.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.4% higher than yesterday and 41.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.1% stronger than yesterday and 7.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.29 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.73 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.9% lower than yesterday and 5.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.3% higher than yesterday and 57.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 18.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.30 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.83 as 74% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 22.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 21.1% higher than yesterday and 31.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% stronger than yesterday and 11.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 6.26 as nearly 86% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.67 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.8% higher than yesterday and 10.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 20.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.2% stronger than yesterday and 12.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

quote ratio %long signal
EURUSD 1.40407 -1.79 36% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03311 -1.63 38% Bullish
USDJPY 117.383 1.24 55% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18689 2.02 67% Bearish
USDCAD 0.98638 5.56 85% Bearish

The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.63 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.90 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 20.5% higher than yesterday and 8.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 30.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.5% stronger than yesterday and 0.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

EURUSD 1.40802 -2.19 31% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03247 -1.69 37% Bullish
USDJPY 117.138 1.30 56% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18562 2.10 68% Bearish
USDCAD 0.98227 5.13 84% Bearish

The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.19 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.67 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.1% lower than yesterday and 5.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 6.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.3% weaker than yesterday and 1.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

EURUSD - 70% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.33). However, since last week, retail has been buying the EURUSD (long positions are up by 22.9%). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

GBPUSD - 66% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -1.98). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling GBPUSD (short positions are up by 29.2%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the GBPUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

USDJPY - 56% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.27). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDJPY (short positions are up by 26.4%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 67% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 2.04). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCHF (short positions are up by 6.1%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 87% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 6.41). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCAD (long positions are up by 9.7%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCAD has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Many of you have sent me an email asking why the Speculative Sentiment Index is a contrarian indicator. The SSI trading logic is based on Behavioral Finance. Making it simple, more long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.71 as nearly 73% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.38 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.6% lower than yesterday and 13.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 7.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.0% weaker than yesterday and 5.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.90 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.0% higher than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.9% lower than yesterday and 13.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% weaker than yesterday and 10.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.6% lower than yesterday and 26.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.9% lower than yesterday and 43.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.4% weaker than yesterday and 8.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.09 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.28 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.9% lower than yesterday and 11.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% lower than yesterday and 74.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.6% weaker than yesterday and 0.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.68 as nearly 85% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 6.60 as 87% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 6.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.7% higher than yesterday and 6.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 3.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.
has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.30 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.64 as 73% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.7% higher than yesterday and 3.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 1.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.1% stronger than yesterday and 2.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.90 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 7.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.4% lower than yesterday and 18.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.3% weaker than yesterday and 10.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.25 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 29.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.7% lower than yesterday and 51.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% weaker than yesterday and 8.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.02 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.28 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 14.6% lower than yesterday and 13.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.6% lower than yesterday and 75.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.2% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.87 as nearly 85% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.75 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 4.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 0.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.9% stronger than yesterday and 3.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

hi antonio, is there a web site I can go to to see commercial trader positions all week long instead of just tuesday's when the COT comes out ? or do you just rely on the SSI for the rest of the week.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.30 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.36 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.2% higher than yesterday and 12.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.0% higher than yesterday and 20.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.9% stronger than yesterday and 8.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.95 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.72 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 25.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 16.7% higher than yesterday and 71.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.6% stronger than yesterday and 1.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.2% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 16.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.6% stronger than yesterday and 17.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.16 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.02 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 23.1% higher than yesterday and 11.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 15.0% higher than yesterday and 49.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 20.4% stronger than yesterday and 16.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.20 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.93 as 86% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 0.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 38.5% higher than yesterday and 26.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% stronger than yesterday and 7.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.


Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Real time positioning is something rare to find that only FXCM offers.
However, there are three indicators you can use to track positioning in the FX market:

- CFTC COT Report ( comes only once a week )
- Risk Reversals from FX Options ( Available trough Blomberg and other data suppliers)
- FXCM SSI ( Available for free on DailyFX (once a week) and two times a day for FXCM clients)

Any low-down today Antonio? I'm waiting for the point in the proceedings when USD longs become worn down with the weight (and wait!).

Realtime Risk Reversals data bares a striking resemblance to weekly COT data. See the image below for further detail.

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