Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.42199 -2.74 27% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03357 -1.61 38% Bullish
USDJPY 117.605 1.27 56% Bearish
USDCHF 1.18272 2.09 68% Bearish
USDCAD 0.97391 5.68 85% Bearish

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.82 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.86 as 65% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 33.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 2.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% stronger than yesterday and 7.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.39 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.72 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 27.2% higher than yesterday and 8.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 50.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.8% stronger than yesterday and 1.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.23 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 15.8% higher than yesterday and 2.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 14.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.6% stronger than yesterday and 16.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.05 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.02 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.3% higher than yesterday and 7.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.8% higher than yesterday and 53.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 18.8% stronger than yesterday and 15.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.64 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.63 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 7.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 67.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.0% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...507524032.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

Thanks Antonio. How would you feel about posting a visual representation of the changes to SSI? The first chart shows the long/short position ratios and the second chart the relative change over the same period.

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Monday, 22 October 2007 18:02:36 GMT
Written by Antonio Sousa, Quantitative Strategies Analyst

Currency pair Quote Ratio L/S % Long Signal
EURUSD 1.41561 -1.53 39% Bullish
GBPUSD 2.03002 -1.09 48% Bullish
USDJPY 114.295 1.53 61% Bearish
USDCHF 1.17737 1.67 63% Bearish
USDCAD 0.97995 3.31 77% Bearish


EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.47 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 27.3% higher than yesterday and 11.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.9% lower than yesterday and 19.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.0% weaker than yesterday and 3.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<< Longs 27% higher and 11% since last week, retail thinking buy this pb. That says to me sell Euro's. Shorts 20% lower no way should I be short and 19% weaker. That says no conviction to the short side; sell Euros. From how I like to read this strong signal to sell Euro as I see weakness will continue.>>



GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.39 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 60.0% higher than yesterday and 13.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 27.2% lower than yesterday and 9.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.5% weaker than yesterday and 3.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<<Longs a whopping 60% bump since yest. and 14% stronger, .... says sell Cable. Shorts 27% lower and mixed 10% higher since last week is a mixed bag , however with shorts not wanting to be short says sell Cable and longs getting longer says sell cable.>>

FWIW- 2.0284 was swing low broken today not to mention daily candle is one awful bearish engulfing. Today's Low breached last week's low, not exactly bullish.

Euchre

Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

FXCM Traders Positioning

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The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.55 as nearly 72% of traders are short, according to our real-time survey on the positioning of more than 20.000 retail traders.

However, retail has been buying back the EURUSD, mostly on stop-loss liquidation (short positions are 10 percent weaker since last week). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term.

The SSI gives us a medium strength signal to BUY EURUSD and we believe the euro could test 1.45 in the week ahead.

That seems like a good idea.
Keep checking our reports because will probably use it.

Thanks
Antonio

Will SSI report be updated on daily fx+ today? No updates so far.

Updated, thx.

Speculative Positioning (After FOMC rate decision)

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.35 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.37 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 15.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 5.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.61 as nearly 72% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.24 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.0% lower than yesterday and 8.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 36.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% stronger than yesterday and 3.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.66 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 19.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.9% weaker than yesterday and 17.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.39 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.34 as 70% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 11.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.1% lower than yesterday and 32.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.4% stronger than yesterday and 18.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.33 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.28 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 4.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 4.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.

[quote=Antonio Sousa;138874]Speculative Positioning (After FOMC rate decision)

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.35 as nearly 70% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.37 as 70% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 15.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 5.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

<< longs starting to builder pos'ns 15% up since last week; ST no conviction. Shorts muted response. Trend says more euro gains>>

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.61 as nearly 72% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.24 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.0% lower than yesterday and 8.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 36.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% stronger than yesterday and 3.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<<Longs lower 9% and 9% since last week no conviction== cable gains. Short trying to top tick 6% up and whooping 37% since last week. Stronger signal that the gains aren't over yet for cable. >>

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.66 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 19.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.9% weaker than yesterday and 17.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

<< Longs not interested 12 % lower and muted. Shorts trying to short with Jaime's call of 115.5 resistance. Cautious as that is key area however potential to 116.40 area as well. Am seeing mixed signals but US$ gains against yen. >>



Euchre


Disclaimer Trading Currencies involves risk. Any opinion, research, analyses, prices, or other information is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice.

According to our dealing desk data, in the wake of the Federal Reserve cut of the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps, euro longs charged and shorts ran for cover. In fact, the ratio of long to short positions in the euro stands at negative 1.73 as nearly 63 percent of traders are short EURUSD, according to our real-time survey on the positioning of more than 20.000 retail traders. However, since last week, retail traders have been buying the EURUSD (long positions are up by 52.8%). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term.

GBPUSD - Short positioning in the Sterling remains extreme as retail traders try to pick a top. Currently, 69% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -2.27). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling GBPUSD (short positions are up by 39.6%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the GBPUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD.

USDJPY - During this week carry trade positioning grew less extreme. At this time 61% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.55). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDJPY (short positions are up by 1.1%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a medium strength SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

USDCHF - 70% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 2.40). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 16.2%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.

USDCAD - 79% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 3.57). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 6.9%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD.

Thanks Antonio and Euchre. Of course these elevated levels for GBP and EUR are bound to look attractive but I suppose the thing is they also looked attractive some time ago ... Still waiting for 'Dollar Capitulation Day'

CAD/USD Net Long 68,831 from Net long 71,323 the Week of Oct 23
CAD longs continue to pare their long positions but this did not prevent USD/CAD from reaching a fresh record low of 0.9327 today on a sharp rise in jobs in Canada. Risk remains for a CAD correction targeting 0.9600.

CHF/USD Net Long 10,790 from Net Long 2,150 the Week of Oct 23
Bearish USD sentiment continues, fuelling a move under 1.1494 today. CHF longs are the highest since July 2004 despite CHF rates still under USD rates, increasing the chance for a USD/CHF bounce back to 1.1600.

GBP/USD Net Long 52,928 from Net Long 45,421 the Week of Oct 23
Longs are the highest since August but still below the year"s highs and trend
indicators have only recently turned bullish. Risk for a move through 2.10 barrier options is possible for sterling.

JPY/USD Net Short -9,949 from Net Short -21,354 the Week of Oct 23
USD bearish sentiment continues to cap USD/JPY but deteriorating Japanese
fundamentals is supporting USD/JPY on dips, with carry trade demand still strong. This is seen keeping USD/JPY in a 114-116 range.

EUR/USD Net Long 68,848 from Net Long 69,016 the Week of Oct 23
Longs are still below the highs seen in July, helping fuel the move to fresh
record highs of 1.4528 today. 1.4600 is the next target.

AUD/USD Net Long 46,022 from Net Long 43,653 the Week of Oct 23
AUD/USD longs increased with AUD making fresh 23-yr highs of 0.9343 with room to break above 0.9350 barriers next week given CAD, EUR and GBP moves and expectations of a 25 bp RBA rate hike next week.

NZD/USD Net Long 14,668 from Net Long 19,451 the week of Oct 23
NZD/USD longs have eased, which has aided this week"s renewed push to highs of 0.7730. Despite today"s the fall to 0.7570 option barriers at 0.7750 and 0.7800 remain the upside target.

MXN/USD - Net Long 69,765 Net Long 45,259 the week of Oct 23
As expected, given the limited longs and last week"s rate hike, USD/MXN tested 10.70 pushing lower on bearish USD sentiment. Longs are the highest since June which could see consolidation between 10.63-10.73.

Can anyone on dailyfx team tell us when the latest SSI will be out. I don't see it on dailyfx+.

Black.day thx for COT report. Short term $ catching a bid or atleast scaling back the short positions. The tops are too neat right now but follow the charts....


Euchre

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.72 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.4% higher than yesterday and 0.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.9% stronger than yesterday and 20.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.21 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.56 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.2% higher than yesterday and 17.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 21.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.6% stronger than yesterday and 23.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.18 as nearly 76% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.41 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 13.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.1% higher than yesterday and 25.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 6.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

Source: FXCM Dealing Desk

For historical data and the latest charts based on the SSI please visit http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...903946044.html

For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ or call +1 646-432-2968.