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Contrarian Positioning Calls for dollar weakness across the board
quote ratio %long signal
EURUSD 1.36880 -1.85 35% Bullish GBPUSD 2.03472 -1.64 38% Bullish USDJPY 118.940 2.23 69% Bearish USDCHF 1.20377 5.09 84% Bearish USDCAD 1.06433 2.30 70% Bearish EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.05 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 13.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 13.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.64 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.48 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 10.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 18.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% stronger than yesterday and 14.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains. USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.22 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.09 as 68% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 3.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses. USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 5.09 as nearly 84% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.91 as 83% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 6.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.0% lower than yesterday and 14.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 5.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses. USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.30 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.42 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 26.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 49.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 7.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses. For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ ) or call +1 646-432-2968 |
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SSI signals USD weakness across the board
SSI %Long Signal
EURUSD 1.36888 -1.66 38% Bullish GBPUSD 2.03182 -1.57 39% Bullish USDJPY 118.635 2.01 67% Bearish USDCHF 1.20112 5.26 84% Bearish USDCAD 1.06291 2.24 69% Bearish For example, the ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.67 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.78 as 64% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 16.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.7% lower than yesterday and 5.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.4% weaker than yesterday and 7.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. |
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The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and the AUD/USD trading volume is not enough for the SSI to produce reliable signals. |
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EURUSD – Positions outstanding fall nearly 8 percent on profit taking
The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are short. However, during this week retail traders have been buying the EURUSD (long positions are up by 4.1% since last week). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. Short positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 14.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.9% stronger than yesterday and 5.3% below its monthly average. The SSI gives us a medium strength signal to buy EURUSD.
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According to the latest FXCM dealing data, 87% of retail traders are long (long to short ratio is 6.49). Retail has been buying more USDCHF (long positions are up by 15.2% since last week). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF.
Other signals EURUSD 1.38118 -2.15 32% Bullish GBPUSD 2.03057 -1.40 42% Bullish USDJPY 117.913 2.19 69% Bearish USDCAD 1.05415 2.91 74% Bearish |
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SSI: Nearly 86% of traders are long USDCHF
quote ratio %long signal
EURUSD 1.37881 -1.97 34% Bullish GBPUSD 2.02961 -1.42 41% Bullish USDJPY 118.274 2.13 68% Bearish USDCHF 1.18866 6.12 86% Bearish USDCAD 1.05128 3.37 77% Bearish EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.97 as nearly 66% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.25 as 69% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 18.2% higher than yesterday and 6.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 2.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.8% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.42 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.73 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.1% higher than yesterday and 5.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 1.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% weaker than yesterday and 10.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains. USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.13 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.47 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 9.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 14.7% higher than yesterday and 7.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.6% stronger than yesterday and 4.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses. USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 6.12 as nearly 86% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 7.56 as 88% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.5% lower than yesterday and 12.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.7% higher than yesterday and 9.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.9% weaker than yesterday and 10.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses. USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.37 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.85 as 74% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.0% higher than yesterday and 16.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 16.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 1.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses. For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ ) or call +1 646-432-2968 |
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Pre FOMC Retail Positioning 08/07/2007 1:25PM
EURUSD 1.37404 -1.70 37% EURUSD
GBPUSD 2.02242 -1.22 45% GBPUSD USDCAD 1.05643 2.82 74% USDCAD USDJPY 118.512 1.88 65% USDJPY USDCHF 1.19567 4.58 82% USDCHF EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are short. Last week, the ratio was at -1.78 as 64% of open positions were short. Retail traders have been buying the EURUSD and long positions are up by 4.8% since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains. GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Last week, the ratio was at -2.31 as 70% of open positions were short. Retail traders have been buying the GBPUSD and long positions are up by 20.6% since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains. USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.83 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Last week, the ratio was at 5.15 as 84% of open positions were long. Retail traders have been selling the USDCAD and short positions are up by 42.3% since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses. USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.88 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Last week, the ratio was at 2.31 as 70% of open positions were long. Retail traders have been selling the USDJPY and short positions are up by 28.7% since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses. USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.56 as nearly 82% of traders are long. Last week, the ratio was at 3.95 as 80% of open positions were long. Retail traders have been buying the USDCHF and long positions are up by 28.1% since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses. For information on an FXCM Managed Fund that takes advantage of the SSI, please review our Sentiment Fund at: http://www.fxcmmanagedfunds.com/ ) or call +1 646-432-2968 |
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FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index
EURUSD - 68% of retail traders are short EURUSD (long to short ratio is -2.12). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively selling EURUSD (short positions are up by 16.9%). In the past, when retail was short and selling more, the EURUSD has rallied in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD. GBPUSD - 61% of retail traders are short GBPUSD (long to short ratio is -1.56). However, since last week, retail has been buying the GBPUSD (long positions are up by 5.1%). When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO BUY GBPUSD. USDCAD - 79% of retail traders are long USDCAD (long to short ratio is 3.69). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDCAD (short positions are up by 12.8%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDCAD. USDJPY - 58% of retail traders are long USDJPY (long to short ratio is 1.37). However, since last week, retail has been selling the USDJPY (short positions are up by 7.2%). When retail is long but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bearish but the market might have some upside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY. USDCHF - 80% of retail traders are long USDCHF (long to short ratio is 4.11). Moreover, since last week, retail has been aggressively buying USDCHF (long positions are up by 26.7%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDCHF has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDCHF. |
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| Posted By | For | Type | Date | |
| COT Data Supports USD Bears | Post #0 | Refback | 07-19-2008 01:11 PM | |
| Yen Likely to Weaken According to COT | Post #0 | Refback | 07-19-2008 04:21 AM | |
| Euro SSI Extreme Eases After The Currency Fails To Take 1.60 | This thread | Refback | 07-19-2008 12:01 AM | |
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