[quote=John Kicklighter;181334]Interesting indeed.

A few things I like about your strategy: it has a strict setup; it has defined stops and targets (which are usually ignored by most speculative traders); and it doesn't look for the entire range of any specific period (in fact it looks for a modest percentage of the average range and will likely take that profit within a relatively short time frame).

All of these are vital components to a successful strategy in my book; and consequently, these are the things I usually tell people to do when they ask me about how they should trade (most are usually just looking for a magical RSI/Bollinger Band combination or something that does everything for them).

How long did you trade soybeans for? The person that taught me to trade actually started out trading soybean and swiss franc futures long ago.[/QUOTE

John, In Response to your Question,

I traded Soybeans from July 2000 until July 2005 and basically paid for the experience what most people would pay to get a university education ... the HARD way. It has taken me up until just recently to overcome the trauma of being able to put on even a small position. One thing is for sure ... I will never lose that amount of money again with such reckless abandon. It is true ... discipline to a Trading Plan and money management are the foundation of Trading success. The process of self discovery led me to study William Gann in great depth ... in fact I still apply his square root calculations to the Historic Charts. Walter Bressert's Oscillator/Cycle Combinations is an invaluable book (if you can still find it). The study of Float Analysis (Volume) I also highly recommend and of course an understanding of Candlestick formations. All of this is solely for the Technical guys of course. I have no grid for Fundamental factors whatsoever ... still, I'm fascinated by the way Market's play out after a major report to confirm the leaning that my numbers are giving me. On this site ... I will make a point of posting ONLY information that is confirmed by my findings concerning this USD/CAD Currency pair. If I don't post anything ... it is because the near term Direction of the Market is not coming through to me with enough clarity for that Day. Regards ... Leith.

The William's %R from Thursday Aug. 21st is suggesting that a near term bottom may be in with yesterday's low of 1.0430. Two JL smallhook Price patterns have come in on Monday and Wednesday of this week ... also suggesting formation of a floor. Unless liquidation of Long positions drops this Market below 1.0415 (into standing Sell orders) today Thursday Aug. 28th., it will be drawn upward into Friday's close, ending the month as an overall Bullish one. Either way ... now that the Market has crossed equilibrium (1.0454) numerous times these past four days ... a break is imminent. Pick your poison.

Trying to pick direction on the USDCAD break out is difficult. On the dollar side, everything is in congestion (except GBPUSD perhaps); so there is no sign of a bias there - though the recent trend would say continuation of dollar strength is more probable.

From the Canadian dollar, the currency has been 50/50 across the market. However, there have been some significant moves in favor of the loonie (but retracements seem to be taking affect.

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

Interesting recent publication by CIBC (Jeff Rubin) on their website regarding CAD:

"Three factors drove the Canadian dollar off its near parity perch, none of which are likely to stick around through 2009. First, the general momentum in favour of the greenback took the C$ down with the pack. But as we noted above, America’s still-looming current
account deficit, and the fact that exports have been the only thing keeping it out of a deep recession, don’t bode well for sustained greenback gains. Second, markets have looked at sputtering Canadian real GDP growth and priced in close to 50 bps in Bank of Canada rate cuts before year end, drawing an analogy to rate cuts that indeed are on tap in the UK and Australia, and eventually, in Europe. But the analogy is a false one, because rates are already at more stimulative levels in Canada than in those other
jurisdictions, and relative to Europe, the banking crunch is having less impact on credit growth trends. Unlike the ECB, the Bank of Canada foresaw the troubled waters ahead and already took rates down earlier. Its next move will be a hike to contain any spillover
from global inflation pressures in 2009. Finally, commodity prices weakened, in a few cases (natural gas) as a response to increased supply, but mostly in expectation for weaker global growth and its impact on demand. Global GDP growth has fallen off
from the unprecedented boom of the past three years, but does not yet appear to be in the sub 2½% range that typically puts commodities into a tailspin. We’ll be reviewing our detailed global forecast in September, but at this point, we view strength in the developing world as under appreciated by markets, and look for a broad rebound in commodities. We pushed back our peak strength for the C$ by a quarter, but continue to see it averaging a couple of cents better than parity in 2009."

Decidedly less CAD bullish than earlier.

Worth noting that all the other major canadian banks have a much more pessimistic outlook for the CAD next year.

I agree with the relative growth position he is taking to the outlook for exchange rates.

However, I don't think Canadian interest rates are accomodative at current levels, as that would mean that low a low cost of borrowing is overcoming other conditions to spur consumer spending - which is probably won't.

Also, I always have a problem with drawing the correlation between crude and USDCAD. It turns on and off so frequently that it is asking to take on more risk to speculate direction and then a relationship. As long as interest rate and growth are greater factors, then commodities can easily be a step down the event risk ladder.

I also think the same about the US economy worse off then the 2Q GDP numbers suggest. But, Canada's economy isn't looking at a rosy forecast either (the 1Q revision brings activity to its lowest level since 1991).

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

I was on this Forum last night - Aug 30th - and the Aug 29th posts were not listed. It is now Sunday the 31st and I was hoping to see some commentary concerning Fridays run-up and a feel for what the forum sees as the week ahead. But all I'm seeing are - aparently - pre break-out comments from the 29th. What's with the apparent delay? I can't believe that John and some of the more erudite commentators haven't posted something pithy & succinct about how this cross ended the week and what it may portend, but the posts aren't showing up in anything like 'a timely manner'.

My My ... Gimme ... Gimme ... Gimme. This is a Free site you know. There are Forecasts that you can pay for that probably won't be any more accurate even if they are regular. If you want a synopsis on how the CAD did last week ... it ended higher than what it opened at because the buyers outweighed the sellers. As for this week ... well it would appear that a test of the recent 1.0730 high is in order by Tuesday. Try glancing at a Chart with an open mind once in a while.

Actually, you misunderstood the complaint. I quite enjoy reading yours and the others posts. Obviously that aspect ('pithy comments', etc) was too obtuse. My apologies for not being clearer.

My point was, why were only posts from the 28th visible on the 30th, and it wasn't until the 31st that I was able to see posts from the 29th. So the question is, why the system delay?

Trust me, I don't rely on this or any of these forums for trading guidance. There is a wealth of timely information out there that I am sure we all access. I just like to see yours and John's take on it.

Keep up the posts, I enjoy them - when not being innapropriately slammed

;-)

Sentiments acknowledged ... your patience is what keeps you in the Game. It appears that this USD/CAD pair is distributing at the top end of the Range between 1.0745 and 1.0680 this morning and may continue so into Thursday as it retests and hovers within 30 pips of the 1.0730 Price area. With Volume picking up ... volatility increases making for wider Swings knocking out small order stops. By the end of this week the 26/9 day Heikien Ashi will have zeroed out ... at which Time this Market will decide on the next defined 10 to 14 day Swingtrend ... either continuing up or retracing recent gains. Stay tuned.

... don't be surprised if a large Sell order attempts to knock this one down into today's opening Price of 1.0668.

It looks like USDCAD has wet its feet with breakout potential; but holding to its annoying history, the pair has pulled back after briefly marking a 12-month high.

This is exactly why I take a cautious approach with this pair and wait for closes on the higher time frames when looking for breakouts.

Watching out for $100/oil or a break in EURUSD below 1.4500 - we need something to sustain momentum and for USDCAD that has to be broad based dollar buying or a significant change in commodity prices.

Are you in a position now donkirk?

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

Not with USD/CAD. A good friend (and the guy who got me intersted in FX trading) has been playing it exclusively for the past month or so because it has been ranging so well. But I have been concentrating on GPB/USD and GPB/JPY (rather fruitfully, I might add). The current GPB dive is reminiscent of the USD dive that made winners out of USD/CAD shorts and EUR/USD longs. As long as the UK fundamentals make it the worst of a weakening global economy, this trend may last for awhile.

By-the-by, any word as to my original post - vis-a-vis why there seemed to be as much as 36 hour delay between when people - specifically you and leith - were posting and said posts became viewable on the forum?

The ppl that provide the server space and software for the forum sometimes have problems and there stuff goes down.

But, under as to our USDCAD posts, I saw them almost instantly...

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John Kicklighter is the author of Dynamic Carry Trade Basket, Watch What The Fed Watches, and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast on DailyFX.com

As well I. Must have been a glitch over the weekend. Cheers....

This heavy Sell order from today Wed. Sept. 3rd high of 1.0779 has broken through both yesterday's Open of 1.0668 and this week's Open of 1.0620, giving up the gains made over the past four days and shaking out the more recent Bulls. Equilibrium now rests between 1.0593 and 1.0614 given this volatility. The high that this Market posts (with Volume & Heiken Ashi smoothed) this coming Friday Sept. 5th will be the measures used for next week's probable direction. Today's top Cloud has exceeded (and subsequently corrected) the most recent extreme bottom Cloud posted on Thurs. Aug. 21st. (exactly 10 days ago) indicating that distribution will continue until the Cloud's also zero out.