The USD is maintaining position on relatively strong ground around 107.30-107.50. We have another short term uptrend which is likely to cool off as US data is coming out in less the two hours. I would predict for the next 12 hours the pair will trade between 107.70-108.10. It may find a bit of resistance on that point as it continues on an uptrend. We can see a MACD crossover signal turning bullish again and also RSI is still in uptrend

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Hi guys, well this is my first post. From my reading some of you are the Real McCoy, very intelligent postings. I am in New Zealand, the other downunder. Do I have any company here. Are there any other Kiwis on the thread?

Thanks
Phoenix

Run out of time? Surely you aren't discounting tomorrow's FOMC rate decision. I can guarantee that an unexpected hike or commentary that suggests one will be found next month or in October will lead to an upside breakout.

In fact, if you look at the dollar across the board, it is moving on major technical levels (EURUSD dominate trendline, USDCHF 1.05, USDCAD 1.035), which increases the probabilities for a breakout dramatically.

I wouldn't say the top is in write now. The only high probability outcome in my book is that we will see some incredible volatility tomorrow.

In 30 min chart clear 5 waves up are seen. If the 5th wave is equal 1st wave, it will end at 108.40. If 108.40 is really seen in Asia season, I will short with s/l at 108.55, target 107.85.

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Will GBP bounce off the corner of the 38.2% Fib Resistance and the upward sloping support line (211.05)? If breaks through will the next stop be the 23.6% Fib (at 203.96)? It'll probably depend on what the Bank of England decides to say on Thursday.

I forgot to attach the image.

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Really good call. Nice job analyzing the 5th wave length and to come up with perfect price projection on the downturn. I hope someone followed the advise. Looking forward the the next one.

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Hi FX Phoenix, Welcome to DailyFX Forum and I am too from Auckland, NZ. Its a great forum to learn as there are some experts whose opinions if followed carefully, we all can make REAL money which I myself have done in last 3 months. Its a great tool and excellent platform to share knowledge, experience, stories and mysteries. Cheers Mate

Today's Fed's statement may be disapointing the market and USD will be sold for a while, pushing this pair down a little furhter, and then bouncing back again.

Now it may be in wave C targeting 107.50. I didn't have a chance to get short around 108.40. I do not like to leave an order overnight with tight sl, I can not sleep well that way. I am in Canada.

(Becareful, I am new in fx)

Edit: B wave could be a triangle. If this is the case, then we are still in B wave. I am thinking to get short below 108.15 with 15 pips sl or just at 108.20.

Edit: I will not put any trade. It's too risky at this special day before Fed's statement.

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Look at the action in the US dollar across the majors. The greenback was able to surge against pound, broke new highs in USDCHF, marked a major trend break in EURUSD, left behind a seven-month range in USDCAD, and rallied 150 points against the Aussie dollar. Despite all this though, USDJPY is still caught in a 85-100 point range below notable resistance at 108.50.

IMO, this is a prominent reminded that the the recent dollar advance is only one of two factors behind USDJPY price action. The other issue here (and clearly the dominate one for the day) is the weakness in the carry trade. Other yen crosses and yield-heavy pairs have been weak across the board (what with the RBNZ and RBA moving towards cuts and the lower yield central banks promising hikes).

I think volatility off of today's Fed decision could produce a USDJPY breakout; but unless other carry pairs rebound, we aren't going to get much of a trend out of the move.

What do the rest of you think? Technically and fundamentally.

The Fed could pull a move similar to the BoE a few months back by being very hawkish in an attempt to maintain credibility with the markets that it does have its focus on price stability. Although oil has fallen, it is still up 20% on the year.

Watch out there. It's trying to break through 108.58. A lot of traders are waiting to get long once it's above 108.65.

A nice hammer was printed on daily chart after NY season.

Currently USD/JPY is 108,26. USD JPY is in a range between 107,80 and 108,50. The volatility is high. The market is hot with the news that Falling oil prices have helped sooth market disappointment from the unchanged U.S. interest rates, allowing the dollar to hit a 7-week low vs. the yen. The Fed has decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 2%, according to market expectations.

The only policymaker in favor of an interest rate hike was Fed President Richard Fisher, who was not supported by his colleagues. Most traders believe that interest rates will remain unchanged until 2009, due to the Fed's highlighting of inflation concerns and risks to growth.

I believe that the drop of oil prices to $118 a barrel, a 3-month low, is the main factor for the dollar's rise. The current price of oil has helped remove one major concern from the struggling U.S. economy. The economic uncertainty around the world might cause central banks around the world to cut interest rates, making the dollar attractive for foreign investors.

Yet analysts of Finexo wish to make clear that the dollar is strengthened only because other economies are getting worse. The dollar stabilized at 108.28 yen after hitting the 7-week high of 108.48 yen. and some of my friends also believe that there is key resistance at 108.60 yen, due to selling by Japanese exporters, slowing down the dollar's ascent.

Resistances
108,50 - 108,60
Supports
108,15 - 107,80

Get more updates at: http://www.finexo.com/docs/tech_analysis/emc.pdf 4

My long orders triggered this morning at 108.65. Already took my first target at 109.60.

Don't know what I want to do with the second target. Perhaps a hard target far away and trail my stop and keep up with a trailing stop (though not to close as there is no doubt going to be retracements int his environment.

Watching EURJPY and GBPJPY closely to see if they can follow suit. I am still skeptical of the dollar's ability to drive a pair that is heavily influenced by its carry trade affiliations.